2. War in the 21st Century Wars in the 20th century
Wars in the 21st century
Asymmetric war
Social warfare

3. 20th century wars were of three types
Interstate, both world wars & bilateral
Proxy, guerilla wars in/among super-power clients
Intrastate, between factions contending over rule
These tended to be state-based

4. But the role of the state in war is changing
More wars are internal to states & societies

5. These appear to have become more pronounced after 1990: Why?
End of the Cold War
Stabilization of national borders
Diffusion of low-cost armaments
Changing internal incentive structures
Changes in domestic social structures & relations
Rise of “global” terrorism
Interventions to impose a stable social order in warring societies

6. Two dominant types of 21st century war
Asymmetric warfare
Great power vs. weaker parties
High tech vs. low tech
No real front lines
Social warfare
Among social groups (ethnic, religious, etc.)
Result of internal destabilization of social order
Often pits dominant against subordinate groups
Neighbors kill neighbors

7. America’s three wars are asymmetric
U.S. relies on advanced technology in war
Local opponent strikes at weak points in defense
Cost of attacks are low; costs of defense are high
High rates of casualties undermines morale
Local opponent often at advantage in numbers
Victory may require unacceptable levels of violence
Local opponent can “wait out” high-tech force

8. GWOT is a type of asymmetric war
There is no fixed field of battle
Groups & communications difficult to “see”
Advanced tech too destructive & costly
High-visibility targets, low visibility attackers
Attacks use/destroy existing infrastructure
Decapitation may not destroy the “body”

9. This has also generated concern about “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs)
Deterrence through threat of mass death (strategy)
Little tactical use for WMDs
State possessors inhibited from using them
Technology & materials not difficult to acquire
Proliferation of WMDs raises fears of “irrational” use
Concerns that WMDs may be used against urban centers

10. Social warfare tends to be struggle for power & domination within nat’l societies
“Cultural” divisions of labor & rule found in many places
Hierarchy & domination give access to power & resources
Changes in subordinate group status viewed as “threat”
Rising groups seek a share of the social product
Political entrepreneurs can mobilize fears of clients
Elimination of “threat” relies on verbal and actual violence
(See chapter 31 in reader)

11. What causes neighbors to slaughter neighbors?
What are the causes of intrastate wars?
How do they happen, and why is history so important?
If we understand them, can we prevent them?
Are these the “wars of the future?”