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Jose G. Peña, Professor and Extension Economist-Management

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Presentation on theme: "Jose G. Peña, Professor and Extension Economist-Management"— Presentation transcript:

1 TRENDS IN PECAN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, TRADE AND THE MARKET SITUATION
Jose G. Peña, Professor and Extension Economist-Management Texas AgriLife Extension Service Uvalde, TX 2009 Texas Pecan Short Course Mesquite, Texas July 12-15, 2009

2 INFORMATION COVERED IN TEXAS PECAN HANDBOOK
U.S. Pecan Farms and Pecan Production Trends in Pecan Production, Consumption and Trade Marketing Pecans: Preparing a Marketing Plan

3 PECAN PRODUCTION ECONOMICS
Discuss: General Background U.S. Pecan Production Regions Trends in Pecan Production Imports/Exports Trade with Mexico Exports to China Domestic Consumption Competitive Tree Nuts What the Market is Offering

4 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION REGIONS

5 U.S. Pecan Farms, Bearing and Nonbearing Acreage by State, 2007
# of Farms All Pecan Acreage Bearing Acres Alabama 1,323 18,025 16,055 Arizona 196 12,365 11,950 Arkansas 312 11,396 8,698 California 283 3,128 2,487 Florida 963 8,652 6,741 Georgia 3,210 114,227 102,567 Kansas 215 6,178 5,265 Louisiana 778 16,557 12,952 Mississippi 673 14,343 11,321 Missouri 391 13,369 11,117 New Mexico 1,742 39,245 35,746 North Carolina 318 1,262 826 Oklahoma 3,589 141,675 124,553 South Carolina 634 4,600 3,813 Texas 6,625 174,929 150,426 Other¹ 604 1,858 1,664 U.S. TOTAL 21,856 581,809 506,181 ¹Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin Source: Census

6 BEARING ACREAGE BY STATE
U.S. Total = 506,181 ¹Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin Source: Census, USDA

7 PECAN STATES IN 2007 Alabama, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
75% of the pecan farms 84% of acreage Texas: Over 30 percent of farms and acreage Source: Census, USDA

8 VALUE OF PRODUCTION BY STATE, 2006-07 AVERAGE
U.S. Total = $378,069,000 Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2005 Summary, July 2006

9 U.S. PECAN FARMS BY TOTAL VALUE OF CROP SALES, 2007
U.S. Total # of Farms 21,856 Source: Census, USDA

10 TRENDS IN PECAN PRODUCTION

11 Discuss: Pecan Production International Trade Domestic Consumption
Imports Exports Production/Consumption in Mexico North American Trade Zone Domestic Consumption Competitive Tree Nuts

12 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION 1990-2008 AVG 266
Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

13 PECAN PRODUCTION AVERAGE 1999 - 2008
Mil. Lbs Native/Seedling 71.2 27% Improved 194.8 73% TOTAL 266.0 100%

14 U.S. PECAN PRICE 1990-2008 Cents/Lb
Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

15 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION AND PRICE
Cents/Lb Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

16 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION 1992 – 2008 Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

17 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

18 INTERNATIONAL PECAN PRODUCERS
Mexico Australia Peru South Africa Israel China Argentina Brazil

19 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

20 PECAN IMPORTS & EXPORTS 1992-2008, (CALENDAR YEAR)
11/13/2018 1:13 PM c:\My Documents\Pena\Presentations\Pecan Pograms\NOGATEC\Delicias,MX\2008\Mercado de Nuez Pecanera-Aug.27-28,2008 Source: USDA-FAS

21 11/13/2018 1:13 PM PECAN EXPORTS TO CHINA/HONG KONG, IN-SHELL (SHELLED CONVERTED TO IN-SHELL) (CALENDAR YEAR) c:\My Documents\Pena\Presentations\Pecan Pograms\NOGATEC\Delicias,MX\2008\Mercado de Nuez Pecanera-Aug.27-28,2008 Source: USDA-FAS

22 PECAN IMPORTS & EXPORTS BY COUNTRY 2005-08
11/13/2018 1:13 PM IMPORTS EXPORTS Average: Million Lbs. Average: Million Lbs. c:\My Documents\Pena\Presentations\Pecan Pograms\NOGATEC\Delicias,MX\2008\Mercado de Nuez Pecanera-Aug.27-28,2008 Source: USDA-FAS

23

24 11/13/2018 1:13 PM MEXICO

25 PRODUCTION AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO
11/13/2018 1:13 PM PRODUCTION AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO Source: Mexico Tree Nuts Annual Report, USDA-FAS MY-Marketing Year (Oct.-Sept.) 1September 15, 2008 estimate

26 NORTH AMERICAN TRADE ZONE

27 PROPORTION OF NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE
ANNUAL PECAN PRODUCTION, Average Production : Million lbs

28 AVERAGE ANNUAL PECAN PRODUCTION, 1998-2008
11/13/2018 1:13 PM AVERAGE ANNUAL PECAN PRODUCTION, East vs. West Average Production : Million lbs 1Eastern States - Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Carolina 2Western States – Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas

29 DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

30 U.S. PECAN DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
(IN-SHELL BASIS) 11/13/2018 1:13 PM ’01-’07 AVG 295 Source: Fruits and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook Yearbook/FTS-2006/October 2007 Economic Research Service/USDA

31 U.S. PER CAPITA PECAN CONSUMPTION
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. PER CAPITA PECAN CONSUMPTION SHELLED BASIS, Pounds Source: Fruits and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook Yearbook/FTS-2007/October 2007 Economic Research Service/USDA

32 What is the Market Offering?
PECAN SUPPLY-DEMAND What is the Market Offering?

33 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION 1955-2008 AVG 266
Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

34 U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, 1980-2008
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED (IN-SHELL) Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

35 Pecan Carry-over Stocks, In-Shell 1997-2008
11/13/2018 1:13 PM Pecan Carry-over Stocks, In-Shell End of September Source: USDA-NASS Cold Storage Report, January 23, 2009

36 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS & PRICE, 1997-2008
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS & PRICE, IN-SHELL BASIS Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009 Stocks as of September 30

37 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS, IMPORTS & PRICE
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS, IMPORTS & PRICE – IN-SHELL BASIS Imports for 2008 estimated; Stocks as of September 30 Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

38 COMPETITIVE TREE NUTS

39 U.S. ALMOND AND WALNUT PRODUCTION, 1986-2009
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. ALMOND AND WALNUT PRODUCTION, Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009 Estimated

40 U.S. TREE NUT PRODUCTION, 1986-2009
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. TREE NUT PRODUCTION, MACADAMIA, PISTACHIO, ALMOND, FILBERT, WALNUT AND PECAN Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009 Estimated

41 PRICE COMPARISON •PECANS •ALMONDS •WALNUTS

42 AVERAGE PRICES FOR ALMONDS, WALNUTS AND PECANS
11/13/2018 1:13 PM AVERAGE PRICES FOR ALMONDS, WALNUTS AND PECANS (IN-SHELL BASIS) Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

43 AVERAGE PRICES FOR ALMONDS, WALNUTS AND PECANS
11/13/2018 1:13 PM AVERAGE PRICES FOR ALMONDS, WALNUTS AND PECANS (FARM PRICE SHELLED BASIS) Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

44 Top Ten U.S. Specialty Crop Exports
By Value In Fiscal Year 2004 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, DOC U.S. Fiscal Year (October-September)

45 MARKET SITUATION

46

47

48

49

50 PECAN ON AND OFF-YEAR PRODUCTION (1996-2008)
11/13/2018 1:13 PM PECAN ON AND OFF-YEAR PRODUCTION ( ) AVG. ’97-07, 338 ’96-08, 189 Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

51 11/13/2018 1:13 PM CROP FORECAST FOR 2009

52 U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, 1980-2009
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED (IN-SHELL) Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

53 IN-SHELL PECANS COLD STORAGE STOCKS, 2003-2009
11/13/2018 1:13 PM IN-SHELL PECANS COLD STORAGE STOCKS, Source: USDA-NASS Cold Storage Report, January 23, 2009

54 U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS & PRICE, 1997-2009
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. PECAN PRODUCTION, STOCKS & PRICE, IN-SHELL BASIS Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009 Stocks as of September 30

55 U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, 1980-2008
11/13/2018 1:13 PM U.S. IMPROVED AND NATIVE PECANS, PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED (IN-SHELL) 150 97 Source: USDA-NASS Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts 2008 Preliminary Summary, January 23, 2009

56 Pecan Wholesale Price Shelled Break-even Price per Pound
PECAN BREAK-EVEN PRICES PER POUND, BASED ON WHOLESALE PRICES AND PERCENT SHELL-OUT Assumptions: Profit Margin $20.0% Sheller Profit Margin Shelling Cost $0.35 Per Pound Sheller Costs Harvest Cost $0.35 Per Pound Producer Costs Pecan Wholesale Price Shelled $3.00 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 $3.80 $4.00 $4.20 $4.40 $4.60 $4.80 $5.00 $5.20 Break-even Price per Pound 40% $0.74 $0.81 $0.87 $0.94 $1.01 $1.07 $1.14 $1.21 $1.27 $1.34 $1.41 $1.47 42% $0.78 $0.85 $0.92 $0.99 $1.06 $1.13 $1.20 $1.48 $1.55 44% $0.89 $0.96 $1.03 $1.11 $1.18 $1.25 $1.33 $1.40 $1.62 46% $0.93 $1.00 $1.08 $1.16 $1.23 $1.31 $1.39 $1.46 $1.54 $1.69 48% $0.97 $1.05 $1.29 $1.37 $1.45 $1.53 $1.61 $1.77 50% $1.09 $1.26 $1.42 $1.51 $1.59 $1.68 $1.76 $1.84 52% $1.22 $1.57 $1.66 $1.74 $1.83 $1.92 54% $1.36 $1.63 $1.72 $1.81 $1.90 $1.99 56% $1.04 $1.32 $1.50 $1.60 $1.78 $1.88 $1.97 $2.06 58% $1.17 $1.56 $1.65 $1.75 $1.85 $1.94 $2.04 $2.14 60% $1.71 $1.91 $2.01 $2.11 $2.21

57 SUMMARY Wide Production/Price Swings of 90’s
Wide Production Swings Starting? Imports/Exports Help Balance Supplies Trade with Mexico: 1st Source; 3rd Destination New Export markets to China, Canada and Europe Production Avg. 266 million, Avg. 244 million, Imports have almost doubled during last 5 years Domestic Consumption: ‘01-07 AVG 295 Mil Lbs. Prices Up Past 7 Seasons as Production Drops

58 SUMMARY (CONTINUED) Record high prices for almonds 2005, Walnuts 2007/08 Drought in Texas 2009/10 Season = On-year Production million pounds Carry-in stocks million pounds Supplies million pounds Exports Market Outlook Good Industry at critical crossroads

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