1. SA Economic Indicators
Report updated:
May 2016
Next update:
June 2016
SA Economic Indicators

2. SA Economic Indicators
What is the SA Economic Indicators report?
Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month.
How to read this report
Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay.
Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months.
e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015
GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015)
Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.

3. SA Economic Indicators
Drop in price of Brent Crude; full effect not felt due to depreciation of exchange rate
Input Prices | Fuel – April 2011 to April 2016
SOURCE: Department of Energy | Frequency: Daily

4. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Oilseed – Three-Year View
Drought in the US and a weak Rand pushes prices up dramatically
A greater than expected harvest yield pushes prices down
Soybean: used in food manu-facture. Significant and cheap source of protein for animal feed.
Vegetable oils: major ingredient in foods and personal care products.
NOTES: 1. Oilseed is defined as any of several seeds from cultivated crops yielding oil, e.g. sunflower, peanut, or soybean. For the purposes of this report, soybean and sunflower prices are analysed
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti

5. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Oilseed – Three-Month View *
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month
*NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition.

6. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Grains1 (Maize & Wheat) – Three-Year View
The biggest harvest in 30 years sees maize prices decline significantly
Further increase in maize forecast due to ongoing drought
Prices of yellow maize & white maize increases dramatically due to adverse global weather
NOTE: 1. Grains is defined as wheat, maize or any other cultivated cereal crop used as food
2. Yellow maize is predominantly used in animal feed
3. White maize is a staple food in South Africa and used to some degree in animal feed
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – FNB data elaborated by Ti

7. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Grains (Maize, Wheat) – Three-Month View
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month
*NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition.

8. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Beef & Poultry – Three-Year View
Beef prices drop due to high volumes and low demand
Beef prices gradually rise in line with demand
Meat prices increase due to high feed prices
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti

9. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Beef & Poultry – Three-Month View
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month

10. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Vegetables – Three-Year View
Adverse weather increases prices
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti

11. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices | Vegetables – Three-Month View
SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month

12. SA Economic Indicators
Input Prices
COMMENTARY
Fuel:
The petrol price in April increased by +88c while diesel and illuminating paraffin increased by +96c and +03c respectively – prices on all grades are expected to increase beginning May 2016
Food*:
Fresh whole chicken saw a slight price increase, with prices expected to continue to move sideways as demand increases due to chicken being one of the cheaper proteins available
Meat prices are starting to feel the impact of higher feed costs as a result of the drought, with an upward trend anticipated in the next few months
Maize prices continue to increase due to the greater need for imports– planting season has passed, and only 60 to 70% of the long-term area has been planted.. Follow up rainfall is needed to improve the growing conditions but new season prices remain high due to the shortage of maize in the coming season
Wheat prices will be under pressure due to the strengthening rand and in the Western Cape, more rain could result in slightly more plantings
Sunflower oil is trading at a premium to soybean oil – however the price of both sunflower and soybean oil is expected to soften further due to harvesting nearing
Vegetable prices have continued to display their typical movement in response to demand and volumes, with the most volatility seen in tomatoes. Tomatoes have seen radical volatility in the month of April. In the next few weeks, prices are expected to remain high, with volumes increasing and prices decreasing only towards the end of the year

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14. Maryla Masojada | Head Analyst Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst