1. Simulation
Meaning
Types
The Monte Carlo Methodology

2. Simulation Meaning
To assume the appearances or characteristics of reality
A descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behaviour of a model under various conditions.

3. Types of Simulation Five types. They are Monte carlo Visual simulation
Business games
Corporate planning
System dynamics

4. Monte carlo
Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random or chance component.
Find Simulated demand for 10 weeks
Get cumulative probability then assign representative range number generate random number and compute the result
Weekly demand
Probability
2000
.12
3000
.23
4000
.48
5000
.17
Weekly demand
probability
Cumulative Probability
Representative numbers(range)
2000
.12
01-12
3000
.23
.35
13-35
4000
.48
.83
36-83
5000
.17
1.00
84-00

5. Monte carlo Wkly demand probability Cumulative Probability
Representative numbers(range
2000
.12
01-12
3000
.23
.35
13-35
4000
.48
.83
36-83
5000
.17
1.00
84-00
Week no RN
Simulated demand 1 32
3000 2 08
2000 3 46
4000 4 92
5000 5 69 6 71 7 29 8 9 80 10 14

6. Simulate break down for 10 day period
No of brkdown
probability
Cumulative Probability
Representative numbers(range
.10 .1
01-10 1 .3 .4
11-40 2
.25
.65
41-65 3 .2
.85 4
.95 5
.05
1.00
No of breakdown
Probability .1 1 3 2
.25 .2 4 5
.05
Week no RN
Simulated brkdown 1 32 2 08
2000 3 46
4000 4 92
5000 5 69 6 71 7 29
3000 8 9 80 10 14

7. Quiz 1- Time 15 minutes Project mgt mainly developed by-----
PERT and CPM Stand for……
CPM is
Write short note on PERT
What do expediting activates require?
What is slope?
Write the steps in forecasting.
What is qualitative forecasting?
Write short note on historical analogy.
In panel consensus the idea is what?
What is α in forecasting?
The past data and future projections are assumed to fall about a
What is causal relationship forecasting?
Write the types of forecasting
What is an event?