1. Review of Winter monsoon 2016 for Maldives
SASCOF -11
Male’. Maldives
25 – 27 September, 2017

2. Existing weather forecasting systems.
Over view of the presentation
Outline
Introduction
Climate of Maldives
Existing weather forecasting systems.
Validation of 2016 NE Monsoon Forecast

3. Introduction

4. General Climate of Maldives
Maldives is located on the equator and therefore experiences monsoonal climate. There are two distinct seasons, dry season (Northeast Monsoon extents from Dec to April) and wet season (Southwest Monsoon from Mid- May to Nov). In these two seasons the temperature varies hardly. Northeast monsoon extends from December to April.

5. General Climate of Maldives

6. MMS Capacity Manned observatories : 5 Automatic Weather Station : 20
Upper air observation : 1
Weather RADAR(Doppler) : 1
Seismometer : 2
Tide gauge : 3
Satellite picture receiving system (CMACast) : 1
Numerical Weather Prediction Models ( WRF )
Ocean Buoy

7. Severe Weather events over Maldives
Cyclones
Tornado / Water Spout
Storms (thunderstorms)
Swell & Tidal Waves
Strong winds
Flash Flood

8. Climate Forecasting

9. Validation of 2016 forecast
The Consensus forecast for 2016 Northeast monsoon rainfall suggested that during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season, Below Normal rainfall was expected over the Maldives.

10. Validation of 2016 forecast

11. Validation of 2016 Forecast
In 2016 Below Normal rainfall was observed in Northern atolls.
Above Normal rainfall was recorded in Central atolls.
Rainfall was Normal in Southern atolls.

12. Validation of 2016 forecast

13. Validation of 2016 forecast
JFMA rainfall was less compare to long term average rainfall in central atolls and slightly more in northern atolls.
Some flooding event happened in Thaa and Laamu atoll during this period

14. Validation
The 2016 NE Monsoon forecast (OND)was good for northern areas
More rain was observed in central atolls during OND.
Normal Rainfall was recorded in Southern atolls during OND.
Comparing 3 regions, the overall forecast was good for Maldives

15. CPT Forecast

16. CCA Map

17. Probability maps

18. Thank you Dial Weather : 3317171 / 171 Phone : 3323084 / 7967171
Website: