1. Country Presentation SASCOF 11 25-27 September 2016 Maldives
Tshencho Dorji
National Center For Hydrology and Meteorology
Bhutan

2. Outline of Presentation
Country introduction
Winter monsoon for Bhutan
Verification of 2016 winter rainfall forecast
Prediction for 2017 winter monsoon
Conclusion

3. Country Introduction Total area: 38,394 Sq. Km Population : 750,000
79 % of population is farmer
Location: Southern Asia, between China & India
Altitude : 100 m in the south to m to the North above msl
Forest Coverage: 72.5% - Policy is to ensure at least 60% for all time
Topography : 95% Mountain terrain

4. Monsoon in Bhutan
Bhutan Climatic is generally dominated by monsoon winds with dry winter and wet summer monsoon
DJF
MAM
JJAS ON 2%
19%
73% 6%

5. Verification of 2016 Winter Monsoon Forecast

6. Outlook for 2016 winter season
CPT
Observed SST August ( )
Goodness Index = 0.442
Forecast of above normal OND rainfall

7. Observed winter (OND) monsoon vs model forecast
OND 2016 rainfall observed to be above normal
Model forecast also indicated above normal rainfall

8. Prediction for OND 2017 Winter Monsoon

9. Prediction for 2017 winter season
CPT
Observed SST August ( )
Goodness Index = 0.350
Forecast of normal rainfall during OND

10. WMO lead center forecast
Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast from WMO lead center indicates normal rainfall

11. Conclusion
Forecast of above normal rainfall was predicted for 2016 (OND) and actual rainfall observed was also above normal.
The rainfall forecast for OND 2017 is normal.
Temperature forecast should be included during the future SASCOFs.

12. THANK YOU