1. The MTCR at 30: Launching and Sustaining the Regime
Richard Speier
February 15, 2018

2. Background
Nonproliferation in the 1970s – bilateral & industrial interests
OSD enters
NSDD 50 and 70 on SLVs & missiles
Brazil

3. The technical focus of missile nonproliferation
"Squishy" list vs. Short List of Denials -- reactions
300 km/500 kg
UAVs covered
battles over SLVs
1985 "Projects of Concern"
Argentina (2), Brazil (2), Egypt (1), India (4), Israel (2), ROK (1)
1985 "Possible" Projects of Concern:
Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Taiwan -- Scud not a western system

4. Technical developments
deals on joining the MTCR:
Brazil, Argentina, So. Africa, Ukraine, ROK, India
ad hoc missile definitions (e.g., UNSC 687)
WMD-capability, "intended" test
Broad acceptance of 300/500

5. Rules NSDD 70 language: 1983-1986 -- evolution of Category I rule
"prohibit", "deny", "stringent", "prevent...any"
evolution of Category I rule
Cat II rules -- popular innovations include "no-undercut", "catch-all"

6. Rules: Later developments
Membership expansion
OSD weakened
Diplomatic baubles, "regime tenders"
"Rare" vs. Cat I UAV approvals (101 UAVs to 11 countries since 2006)

7. The future Focus on DPRK/Iran
What about Turkey, Syria, Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan, Taiwan, Japan/Australia?
Increased missile defenses
Candidates for controls -- penaids, hypersonics
Policy-making outside vs inside the MTCR