1. Global Climate Change for Beginners
Robert K. Kaufmann
TERC
July 10, 2007

2. Climate vs. Weather Weather: Conditions on any given day
The temperature in Boston today is 88oF
Climate: Average conditions on any given day over
The average temperature in Boston on this day is 82oF

3. 15,000 Years of Temperature

4. 1000 Years of Temperature

5. Instrumental Temperature Record

6. Heat Balance of Planet Earth

8. Changes in Out-Going Radiation

9. Radiative Forcing of Sulfur Emissions
Direct Effect

10. The Heat Balance of Planet Earth
SOx
Ground

11. The Heat Balance of Planet Earth
SOx
Clouds
Ground

12. From: Petit et al., Nature 399, 429 - 436 (1999
The Vostok Record
From: Petit et al., Nature 399, (1999

13. How Do Humans Affect Radiative Forcing?

14. Burning Fossil Fuels

15. Changing Land-Use Deforestation
Chopping down trees releases carbon dioxide
Increasing termite habitat methane emissions
Agriculture
Rice paddies--human swamps emit methane
Livestock--Methane ‘burps’

16. Atmospheric Concentrations

17. Detection: Is Climate Changing?

18. Earlier Springs, Later Autumns

19. Melting Ice Shelves
There's no evidence of any period in the last 12,000 years where there was open water in the area that has now been exposed," Dr. Scambos said.
New York Times March 20, 2002

20. Ice Shelf Break-Up Feb 17, 2002 Jan 31 2002
The speed of it is staggering," said Dr. David Vaughan, a
glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey.
Feb 23, 2002
March 5
New York Times March 20, 2002

21. Attribution: Are Humans Responsible for Increased Global Temperatures?

22. Model Results

23. Statistical Analysis of Historical Data

24. Wall Street Journal December 4, 1997
How Much
Doubt Exists?
Wall Street Journal December 4, 1997
“If rising carbon dioxide is the cause of rising temperatures, why didn’t it cause temperatures to rise from 1940 to 1970?
“Trust me, the satellite data have been reanalyzed dozens of times,…they show much less warming than expected by theory

25. Remember Sulfur Aerosols!

26. Contamination
Satellite
Reconciliation

27. Climate Models: How, Where, and By How Much Will Climate Change?

28. Causes For Temperature Change
Doubling of radiative forcing……………1.2oC
Increased water vapor……….. ……….1.6oC
Increase in clouds………………………..0.8oC
Changes in surface albedo……………….0.4oC
Other changes……………………………0.2oC
Total change in temperature…………….4.2oC

29. Forecasts for Climate Change
More frequent extreme high temperatures and less frequent extreme low temperatures.
Night-time low temperatures generally increase more than daytime highs, reducing diurnal temperature range.
Decreased daily winter temperature variability and increased summer variability in mid-latitude N hemisphere
Mid-continental summer drying due to precipitation not keeping up with temperature & evaporation
Intensity of precipitation events increases.

30. Climate change impacts on the environment & economy
Change in Sea Level
Impact on agriculture
Impact on Biomes

31. Changes in Sea Level Melting of glaciers and polar ice
Thermal expansion of water

32. Eastern US 11.8 Thousand Years Ago

33. Eastern US 5 Meter Sea Level Rise

34. Eastern US 50 Meter Sea Level Rise

35. Impacts on Agriculture
Benefits Costs
Longer growing season
Mid Continent Drying
CO2 Fertilization
Warmer nights
Water use efficiency

36. Can Biomes Migrate in Time?

37. Climate Change & Extinction Climate change scenario
Migration rate Minimum Middle High
Universal dispersal
No dispersal
I’ve chosen region for a number of reasons.
First, the Delta exemplifies China’s unparalleled economic growth. For the period 1988 to 1996, real GDP for counties in the delta increased by %.
Second, the Delta is a major agricultural region. The semi-tropical monsoon climate combined with fertile alluvial soils makes the Delta a national leader in the production of lychees, bananas, pond fish, and sugar cane. This is important because conversion of agricultural lands in the delta will have impacts beyond the immediate region.
Third, Delta is home to SEZs which are designated regions where the government can test and evaluate different market-based economic policies.
And finally, the geographic proximity to Hong Kong and the cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors provides the region with constant access to capital flows and technological innovations.
Thomas et al, 2004 Nature 427:

38. The Policy Debate Should anything be done?
How much should emissions/concentrations
be reduced?
How should reductions be accomplished?

39. Should Anything Be Done?
Is society emitting the optimal level of greenhouse gases and sulfur?
No Emitters do not pay for any of the damage associated with global climate change

40. What information would society like to have ?
How Much Should be Done?
What information would society like to have ?
What is the economic value of the damage (and benefits) associated with global climate change?
What are the costs associated with reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and/or removing greenhouse gases from the environment?

41. The Kyoto Protocol

42. Implementing Reductions
Command & Control
Efficiency standards
Mandatory reductions in energy use
Market Based Mechanisms
Carbon taxes
Tradable permits

43. Tradable Permits

44. Carbon Offsets Commercial providers
Boston-Orland round trip 2,243 miles
Emissions 1,009 pounds carbon
$9.95 in Offsets
Offsets reduce emissions elsewhere

45. Shameless (but proud)
Plug