1. Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster
Case Study:
1986 Congressional Race State of Hawaii
District #1
Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster

2. Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor !
Mid-summer 1986
Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor !
He is currently the US Rep. for District 1.
One problem: He must resign to run !
So, he resigns

3. Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
Elections
Three Needs
Need #1: Fill vacancy through Jan
Need #2: Select nominees for general election.
Need #3: Elect Congressman in November.
Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.

4. The Players Pat Saiki (R) Mufi Hanneman (D) Neil Abercrombie (D)
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
The Players
Elections
Pat Saiki (R)
Mufi Hanneman (D)
Neil Abercrombie (D)

5. The Rules The Twist Anyone can vote in the primary.
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
Elections
The Rules
Anyone can vote in the primary.
The Twist
Saiki has no discernable competition.

6. A graphical look at public support
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
Elections
A graphical look at public support
N.A.
M.H.
P.S.

7. September Results: Pat Saiki wins Republican primary.
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
Elections
September Results:
Pat Saiki wins Republican primary.
Mufi Hanneman wins Democratic primary
Neil Abercrombie wins Special Election !!!

8. Pat Saiki wins election !!!
Mid-summer 1986
Primary September
General November
Elections
November Results:
Pat Saiki wins election !!!

9. What happened ?
Republicans voted for Mufi in primary - the “weaker” candidate, and he wins!!!
Republicans & Democrats have an incentive to vote for their favorite in the special election; Neil wins!!!
Abercrombie supporters voted for Saiki in general election - retribution against Mufi’s campaign.

10. Debrief Saiki won a second term (1988-1990).
Saiki ran for senate in lost -- was selected to run SBA by Bush I.
Abercromie ran again, and won, in served until 2010.
Hanneman lost 1990 race for District later served on Honolulu City Council.
Cec Heftel lost bid for governorship.

11. Debrief II
Abercromie wanted to be governor in resigned from District 1 seat in 2010!
Hanneman becomes Honolulu mayor in re-elected in wants to be governor in 2010!
Abercromie wins primary and general elections.
Djou becomes interim Rep. for District loses general election.

12. Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster
Case Study:
1986 Congressional Race State of Hawaii
District #1
Public Choice Theory Dr. D. Foster