1. Preparing for Dollar Appreciation
Quarterly Chartbook
Q2 2018
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2. Complete Intelligence: Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
The world is built on bad forecasts. We’re here to solve it.
Complete Intelligence is a data technology firm using our proprietary machine learning platform to forecast commodities, currencies, equity market indices for 450 assets and economics and trade for >100 countries.
A full list of our asset forecasts – commodities, currencies and equity markets - can be found here.
A full list of our economics and trade forecasts can be found here.
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3. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Developed market struggle to break out of “new normal” while China stumbles in Q2
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4. China’s slowing growth beset by low inflation
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5. US inflation returns, but growth is subdued until Q4 2018
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6. Fed normalization → Dollar appreciation (for now)
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7. Slightly weaker JPY → Slightly stronger Nikkei
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8. Corporate profits driving BSE Sensex
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9. Copper (SHFE) continues slump on slowing China demand
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10. Gold’s mid-summer rally gives false hope
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11. Subscribe to CI Weekly: Our free weekly newsletter
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12. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Methodology
The Complete Intelligence global model contains billions of data items across economics, trade, currencies and commodities. We have intentionally designed an integrated global model to ensure that actions in one market, country or sector of the economy are reflected elsewhere in markets, industries and the global economy.
For each forecast line, we test more than 1 million functions from nearly 100 industry sectors and over 100 countries against the historical data series. We then shortlist the top functions (hundreds) that correlate with prices to build our forecast algorithm. We re-test and re-build millions of forecast algorithms every month to account for changes in the global economy, markets and trade flows.
Price forecasting presents a unique challenge that extends beyond traditional regression analysis. A number of approaches can be taken to apply artificial intelligence to price forecasting, including:
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (and its variants, including autoregressive fractional integrated moving average)
Complete intelligence has undertaken detailed analysis and have prioritized the ARIMA-like approach over ANN, ANFIS and others. Through this process, we back test and reveal the forecast correlations and r-squared to give clients clarity on the actual levels of confidence for the forecast.
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13. Disclaimer of Liability
This Complete Intelligence Quarterly Chartbook (CIQC) may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. makes no warranty, representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in this CIQC. It is not the intention of the CIQC to be used or deemed as recommendation, option or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future, including but not limited to investments.
This CIQC is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, plan or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any transactions. This data does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any commodities, currencies, securities or products. Users must make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial, legal and tax advisers, if any data presented here is a basis for meeting personal goals. This is not intended for retail investors who should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, data, figures, predictions, or opinions set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. We do not have control over the output of our artificial intelligence algorithm once programmed, as it is enabled to make its own decisions and output the forecasting data presented. All information presented is considered by Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. Investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and tax treatment and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
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14. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Do you have a question on this presentation or need a customized forecast? Please us at
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