1. Trend Data Guest Speakers: Pattie Johnson, TRI Sally Simich, ODE

2. Why Use Trend Data
Visual representation of multiple years of data to reveal a pattern of gradual change over time
To convey data clearly and accurately
To reveal or see patterns in the data
To motivate an audience to use data
To facilitate accurate and efficient interpretations of the data while minimizing the likelihood of misrepresenting data
Many individuals learn better through pictures than words; graphs help people remember the information
Item 5 particularly important for small districts with few leavers

3. Graphs are Common Inaccurate scale or axis Wrong type of graph
Too much or too little data being displayed
A bad graph is one that misrepresents the data or leads to misinterpretation of the information or one that serves no other purpose than to be ‘pretty’. LOVE THIS! pj
Bad Graph Contestants Forbes.com 2012

4. Considerations for Displaying Data
Scale should be to 100 when showing percents
Avoid 3D graphs
Consider the audience
More sophisticated audience = more sophisticated graph
Consider the task
What do you want the audience to do with the information
Know a specific percentage or number
(e.g., 79% of youth with disabilities are engaged one year after leaving high school)
Make comparisons
(e.g., males are more engaged than females)
See trends and patterns over time
(e.g., since 2010 the percent of youth engaged has steadily increased).

5. Questions Guiding a Trend Analysis
How representative are these data?
What direction are our outcomes going?
Are there differences in outcomes by subgroups?
Gender, Disability, Method of Exit, and Ethnicity
What is contributing to our outcomes?
How can we use the information?
Analysis: combine three years work of follow up interview results in small

6. Let’s look at some overall data trends across the four years of consistent data collection

7. All districts are required to participate each year
All districts are required to participate each year. Student selection is based on a stratified sample designed to generate a representative sample of leavers to ensure generalizable information.
Districts select who will conduct the interviews, and data entry is open from June through September. Interviews can be completed with young adult or their family members.
Oregon’s PSO data have consistently been representative on all subgroups except dropouts
PSO Data Collection

8. Sample Leavers, Response Rate, and Completed Interviews for Four Years

9. Add 2012 data
Hi ed increasing, competitive emply down, other sch down, other emp same, ne increased

10. What do we see in the trends?
Higher Education initial increase, then static
Competitive Employment Increasing
More Oregon leavers employed than in education
Other School and Other Work relatively unchanged
Not Engaged rate decreasing – right direction – until last year
Why look further?
To target resources to specific needs
The variables to explore
Limited time to look at more

11. Are there differences in outcomes by subgroups?
Gender x 3 years
Disability categories x 3 years
Ethnicity categories x 3 years
Method of Exit x 3 years

13. Looking at Data: Process summary
How representative are these data?
Explore the response size and how the subgroups matched the population
What direction are the outcomes going?
Look at graphs showing performance, trends, and comparisons
Examine outcomes by subgroups.
Work from general overview to more specific components
Explore what is contributing to the outcomes.
Look at a combination of components; extra questions asked as
part of the survey; collect or examine other data
Not taking time to go over all the results, but selecting descriptive components for exploration
Iterative process case dependent

14. Two Follow Up Report Formats
District level summary reports
Engagement Report includes information on who is engaged by subgroup and if the sample of students interviewed matches the total district leavers
Interview Summary Report summarize your interview data, including the open ended responses given by the interviewee.
Pattie for awhile
Reports are on a secure state data system and contain all district level student information

15. Using the Reports
Monitor your progress on the 2014 data collection – constantly updated
Compare current district response rate, engagement rate, and representativeness to final results from 2012, 2011, and 2010
Examine results of changes the district is making in transition services over time

16. 2013 Engagement Report . Goal Update with new data- state level data
5 numbers: HE, CE, PSE/T, SOE, NE
RR/Representativeness
Disaggregations: engagement X race/ethnicity, gender, dis cat, method of exit

17. Sample District – subgroup
Update with State level data
Sample District – subgroup

18. Sample District Data– Representative?

19. District and State comparisons
Compare results with like sized districts
District and State comparisons

20. Questions for the district to consider when looking at reports
What do the most recent data show?
Can we make district-wide statements using our results, or have we missed dropouts or other groups?
Are our students going on to school within a year?
Are they able to get and keep jobs for at least 3 months?
What percentage of our students are actively working or learning within a year of leaving?
Do we have more than a third of our leavers who haven’t done any work or training after leaving high school?
Are we getting better at launching successful students?
Sally takes over

21. How is ODE holding districts accountable for student PSO?
PSO is separate application available to secondary transition staff at district level.
Needed administrative audience
Now PSO will be included with monitoring indicators with notification if district failed to meet state targets

22. SPR&I Monitoring Report on Secondary Transition Indicators: PSO
Highlight the cells if fail to meet state average response rate, or state engagement target for A + B + C
Overall engagement rate: Percent enrolled in higher education, competitively employed within one year of leaving high school, in some other postsecondary education or training program or in some other employment. [(# of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school and were enrolled in higher education, or in some other postsecondary education or training program; or competitively employed or in some other employment) divided by the (# of respondent youth who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school)] times 100.

23. SPR&I Monitoring Report on Secondary Transition Indicators: PSO

24. Accountability What Is working for the district?
Where is more effort needed?
Administrators will need to explore the reports on the Post School Outcomes Application to learn about subgroup results and trends:
Disability
Method of exit
Gender
Race/Ethnicity
Like-sized districts

25. Next Steps for Districts
Share and discuss data with stakeholders
Identify areas of strength and areas for improvement
Use data to determine what changes are needed

26. For more information: Sally Simich Pattie Johnson
Transition Specialist, Oregon Department of Education
Pattie Johnson
Teaching Research Institute, Western Oregon University
Charlotte Y. Alverson
National Post School Outcomes Center, University of Oregon