1. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills: Towards a Five Year Strategy – for the UK & Scotland
Goodison Group Seminar
Scottish Parliament
6 October 2008
Chris Humphries CBE Chief Executive UK Commission for Employment and Skills

2. The UK – not a bad track record, surely?
22nd country by size of population
16th economy in world by gross national income
6th largest world economy by GDP:
USA, China, Japan, Germany, India, UK, France, Italy, Russia
Employment levels at 74.7%, compared to EU of 66%
Unemployment at 5.5%, compared to EU at 6.9%
What’s the problem?
Source: Population, Income and GDP date from CIA Yearbook 2006; Service economy data from OECD Factbook 2006,

3. UK Jobs and Productivity: An International Challenge …
Prosperity depends on jobs and productivity – and both depend on skills
Employment – UK is 4th in EU; 8th out of 30 in OECD
Productivity – UK is 10th out of EU 15; 15th out of 30 in OECD UK
USA EU
Source: Labour Market Trends (May 2005), O’Mahoney and Van Ark (2003)

4. UK Productivity: … a sectoral challenge
UK Productivity as %age of Europe’s
Good
Poor

5. … with skills variations across sectors
Source: Labour Force Survey, Q4, 2007

6. UK Jobs and Productivity: … and a national/regional challenge …
Source: Office of National Statistics- GVA data 2006; Employment data Q4, 2007

7. … with skills variations across nations and regions
UK Working Age Population – Highest Qualifications Held, 2006
Source: ONS Regional Snapshot, 2007

8. UK demographic trends to 2020: Less young & more older workers
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills
14/11/2018
UK demographic trends to 2020: Less young & more older workers
Projected change in age groups (in thousands)
Particular decline pattern amongst youngest workers
821
33% + -
800
100
200
500
400
300
600
700
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
AGE
70-74
45-49
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
900
808
+23%
500,000 (12%) decline in 10 years
662
+17%
542
+14%
335
+11%
218
+5%
531%
15-19
20-24
35-39
40-44
45-49
60-64
55-59
50-54
362
-9%
309
-7%
752
-16%
404 9%
201%
Big increase in older workers
75% of UK workforce already in work
Yet these are the people we are least likely to train
Source: UK Government Actuary, 2004-based Project populations
© UKCES 2008

9. Skills of the UK adult workforce: 1990-2020
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills
14/11/2018
Skills of the UK adult workforce:
33% with high skills
28% with very low skills
Source: DfEE/DfES, Labour Force Survey, ; Leitch, Prosperity for all in the Global Economy, 2006
© UKCES 2008

10. High employment levels mean we must reach more of the unemployed and inactive
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, 2005

11. UK improvements are too slow at school level …
UK Position:
15th in OECD for ‘older workers’
22nd in OECD for ‘younger workers’
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007, Table A1.2a

12. … and too slow at tertiary level too
UK Position:
12th in OECD for ‘older workers’
17th in OECD for ‘younger workers’
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance Table A1.3a

13. … and we don’t train our managers well!
On-the-job
Off-the-job
Source: Keep & Westwood, ‘Can the UK Learn to Manage?’, 2003

14. Are we closing the gap at the moment?
Skill Level
OECD 2007 position
2020 position on current trend
Literacy/numeracy
20th out of 23
N/A
No/low skills
17th out of 30
(35%)
15th
Intermediate Level skills
20th out of 30
(36%)
13th
Degree or higher
11th out of 30
(29%)
14th

15. What is the big UK ambition?
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills
14/11/2018
What is the big UK ambition?
“A competitive society – one which achieves a dynamic equilibrium between wealth creation and social cohesion”
Prof. Stephane Garelli, Editor, World Competitiveness Handbook, 1995
Productivity improved to European average
Increased employment opportunities – 80% in work
A world class high skill workforce
Better equity and social cohesion – closing the gaps!
© UKCES 2008

16. UK Commission for Employment and Skills: Purpose and Roles
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills
14/11/2018
UK Commission for Employment and Skills: Purpose and Roles
Purpose: “to strengthen the employer voice, deliver greater leadership and influence and to achieve the best from the employment and skills systems”
Principal Roles:
“assess progress towards making the UK a World Class Leader in employment and skills by 2020”;
“develop an independent view of how employment and skills services can be improved to achieve increased employment retention and progression, skills and productivity”;
“provide advice to inform strategic policy development, analysis and exchange of good practice to drive and shape the skills and employment system to meet the needs of employers and individuals”;
“promote employer investment in people and the better use of skills”;
“express its advice and recommendations to the highest levels of governments in the UK”;
“fund and manage the performance of the Sector Skills Councils including their re-licensing.”
Source: UK Government Remit Letter to UK Commission for Employment and Skills, March 2008
© UKCES 2008

17. Year 1 Work Programme Core Programme: Baseline Projects:
Prepare first ‘State of the Nations’ Report – March 2009
Launch and progress SSC Re-licensing
Review of Employer ‘Collective Measures’
Preparation for 2010 Review of Employment and Skills Services, and later review of Statutory Entitlement to Learning
Baseline Projects:
Underpinning Research Programme – UK & International research programme to inform annual progress report
Linking Spatial and Sectoral Initiatives – maximising the geographic return from sectoral/regional skills initiatives

18. Year 1 Work Programme (cont’d)
Commission Projects:
Labour Market Information models – to ensure consistent, high quality and reliable Labour Market Information is available for both sectors and regions
‘Mapping’ – the UK employment and skills system so employers find it easier to access, and gain, the support they need from colleges and Universities
Employability Skills – ensuring learners get, in addition to technical skills, the generic employability skills needed by 21st century employers
‘Customer Journey’ studies – track the employer and learner experience with colleges to help simplify the UK employment/skills system
Employee Demand Study – identifying and removing barriers that reduce current employee participation in work-related skills and training
Simplification – seeking to simplify the employment and skills system to better serve the needs of employers and individuals
Skills Utilisation – how to deploy higher level skills to implement more productive and competitive business strategies

19. Draft Strategic Map: 2009-2014 SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
National
and global economy
Competitor/ comparator nations
Social policy and conditions
Culture – attitude & values
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
AND SOCIAL COHESION
2020 Goal: UK still 6th largest world economy
2020 Goal: Converging earnings ratios between top and bottom quartile
INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY
(‘Good industries – sustainable)
2020 Goal: UK productivity = EU average
INCREASED EMPLOYMENT
(‘Good jobs’ – career progression)
2020 Goal: 77% employment rate
Regulatory environment
Competition policy
Infrastructure
Investment
Trade
Research & development
Public sector effectiveness
OTHER DRIVERS
OF PRODUCTIVITY
Job creation initiatives
Conducive benefits system/ incentives
Sustainable development
Closing opportunity gaps
Equality & diversity
OF EMPLOYMENT
SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT POLICY AND PRACTICE
2014 Progress: 36% of working age population at sub-degree HE
2014 Progress: 58% at upper secondary/equivalent
2014 Progress: 60% at lower secondary level/equivalent
2014 Progress: 76% employment rate
2014 Progress:: UK unemployment rate 20% lower than EU average
ENTERPRISE & INNOVATION
2014 Progress: High performance working target TBA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
2014 Progress: Converging spatial equity gaps - TBA
UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS
To monitor, challenge and stimulate improvement of the UK employment and skills system in …
Raising ambition, engagement and investment
Developing demand-led policies, measures & incentives
Implementing through simple & responsive structures / processes
Achieving world class performance and delivery
Identifying priorities and improving intelligence
For Employers
For Individuals
For Learning Providers

20. Some questions for your consideration:
Does this strategic framework make sense?
Are our ambitions for the UK appropriate? How may they need to be adjusted for Scotland?
In addition to productivity and employment, are we right to include aspects of:
Enterprise (e.g. skills utilisation/ high performance working; management and leadership)
Economic development (e.g. closing geographical ‘gaps’ in productivity, employment and skills)
in our scope?
Are the three key levers for Commission challenge and influence appropriate? (see more detailed framework ‘handout’)
What changes does the current system need – on the demand side and on the supply side?

21. To contribute further to the development
of UKCES’ Strategic Plan, please send
your thoughts to