1. The Publics Perception of Weather Forecasts Introductory Talk February 25, 2011 Drew Montreuil

2. Goals & Motivation Goals: Goals: Study how public uses and interprets weather forecastsStudy how public uses and interprets weather forecasts Identify areas where meteorologists can improve the delivery of forecastsIdentify areas where meteorologists can improve the delivery of forecasts Motivation: Motivation: Big storm/forecast bust hypeBig storm/forecast bust hype Misinformation in publicMisinformation in public Public safetyPublic safety

3. Previous Work National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 2006 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 2006 1465 completed surveys of randomly selected Americans who said they used weather forecasts1465 completed surveys of randomly selected Americans who said they used weather forecasts Under representation of people under age 24 and with incomes under $25,000 per yearUnder representation of people under age 24 and with incomes under $25,000 per year

4. Methodology Survey developed with Dr. Norman Weiner: Survey developed with Dr. Norman Weiner: Production of survey began in October 2009Production of survey began in October 2009 Survey tested on subjects and subsequently adjusted numerous timesSurvey tested on subjects and subsequently adjusted numerous times Survey finalized and submitted to SUNY Oswego Human Subjects Committee early October 2010 for approvalSurvey finalized and submitted to SUNY Oswego Human Subjects Committee early October 2010 for approval Approved October 22, 2010Approved October 22, 2010 156 completed surveys, 40 of those meteorology majors156 completed surveys, 40 of those meteorology majors

5. Sample Question & Preliminary Results #13) How accurate do you feel the weather forecasts you use are? Under 25% accurate Under 25% accurate 25 to 40% accurate 25 to 40% accurate 40 to 60% accurate 40 to 60% accurate 60 to 75% accurate 60 to 75% accurate Over 75% accurate Over 75% accurate

6. Further Plans Continuation of data compilation Continuation of data compilation Suggestions for what meteorologists can do to improve forecast communication to public Suggestions for what meteorologists can do to improve forecast communication to public Suggest areas for future research Suggest areas for future research

7. Reference Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, and J. K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A survey of the U.S. Public. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 974-991.

8. Questions? Thank you for coming! Thank you for coming! Questions, comments and suggestions welcome! Questions, comments and suggestions welcome! Email: montreui@oswego.edu Email: montreui@oswego.edumontreui@oswego.edu Phone: (607) 351-1488 Phone: (607) 351-1488