1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO Geoffrey Love, Ph.D. Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments CCL Technical Conference 16-18 February, 2010 Antalya, Turkey www.wmo.int WMO

2. Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!) In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan) –New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues) –International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

3. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Economic losses Loss of life Number of events Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

4. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Number of eventsLoss of life Economic Losses

5. Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Strong Wind Water Resource Management People Agriculture Energy Urban areas Need for Multi-sectoral risk management Drought Transportation Aral Sea Disasters impacts many sectors! Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

6. Six Components of An Effective National Disaster Risk Management Framework Risk TransferRisk Assessment Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduce economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training across agencies Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency) 3 2 5 4 1 6

7. Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Impacts: population density agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses Number of lives at risk $ at risk Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for Socio- economic impacts data and analysis tools Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

8. 4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools Hazard Model Vulnerability / Damage Model Probable Loss estimate Exposures Historical Statisitical hazard analysis events Land cover and elevation Hazard estimate Input database Model Product Key Cost Benefit Scenario Events Portfolio losses / mitigation options Local data Population distribution Possible Inputs Economic data 1: Hazard Assessment Hazard maps 1: Hazard Mapping 3: Risk Mapping & Loss Estimation 2: Damage Functions 2: Asset Inventory and Valuation Risk maps Estimating the Risk with Consideration for Climate Variability and Changes! Future climate hazard trends (seasonal, inter annual, decadal) +,

9. Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate Services…. Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools Forward looking hazard trend analysis - Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts - Probabilitic climate forecasts and long-term hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)

10. WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that …. Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html) Main needs are: Modernisation of observation networks Data rescue Data management systems Maintaining standard historical hazard database and metadata Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk assessment!!!

11. National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries feedback Warning Dissemination feedback 2 4 3 5 54 4 5 Increasingly more countries are developping Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events…. Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 1 Warning dissemination Community Emergency Plans and Prepared Warning dissemination

12. WMO has partnered up with other agencies to Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Early Warning Systems First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010 Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the way) Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System France Vigilance System Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

13. BUT economic losses are on the way up! Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Loss of life from hydro- meteorological disasters are decreasing…

14. …. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Insurance / Finance Agricultural productivity and food security Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities

15. Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms What type of Financial tools? Which Risks?Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Government Companies Individuals Other Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Financial risks WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets- 2007/index_en.html

16. Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives were discussed: Information requirements (data and forecasts): –Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data –Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) –Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) –Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts –Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and long-term strategy) Technical support and Service delivery needs WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance December 2007, WMO HQ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

17. Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance Drivers are –Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the companies to report of their climate risk –Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate research community to develop relevant climate services –Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more) WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world

18. Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction (Many other examples exist) Season to year Next hour to 10 days Decade Long term Scenarios Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Probabilistic seasonal forecasts : Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Emergency planning activation and response Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses Strategic Planning Building codes Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting Land Zoning and Planning Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds Emergency Services Government Authorities Insurance Public, Media Urban planners Local to national Governments Banks Insurance DECISION MAKERS DECISIONS SERVICES Local – National Government Insurance Suppliers Public, Media Negotiators Parlimentarian Local/nationalg overnments Private sector International negotiations and agreements National policies and legilation

19. 1.Identification of various user-communities and their requirements –(eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance) 2.Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards 3.Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR –Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM –Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools 4.Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM

20. Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO South East Europe Central Asia and Caucasus South East Asia SADC Central America and Caribbean WMO Shanghai MH- EWS Demo Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard EWS Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present)

21. 1.Disaster and Climate Risk Management are interlinked development issues 2.Development of Climate Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming 3.There is need for: a.Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis tools b.Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applications c.Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs and requirements (public and private sectors) d.Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various sectors Key Messages:

22. Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters For more information please contact

23. Thank you MerciСпасибоGraciasشكرا Thank you MerciСпасибоGraciasشكرا Leslie Malone Scientific Officer Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch Climate & Water Department World Meteorological Organization Tel: 41.22.730.8220 Fax: 41.22.730.8042 Email: LMalone@wmo.int