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Published byBridget Gillott Modified over 10 years ago
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Forecasting process: Severe Weather
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Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information 3. BELIEVES the information 4. Personalizes the risk 5. Make correct decisions 6. Respond in a timely manner
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Early warning Effective early warning should be: Short, concise, understandable and actionable What, where, when, why, how to respond Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.
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Process Identifying Severe Weather
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UKMO Model 5-7 Day Lead time
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NOAA Model 5-7 Day Lead time
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Unified Model 24 Hour fine scale lead time
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Web-based sources: QuickScat 5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office >100mm in 24hour 24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather
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Process: Current Issuing and disseminating Warning
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DesktopWarning Distribution list Issuing of Warning
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Posted on the Internet
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Television Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many others Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service Telephone: Direct to Forecaster
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Process: Current Monitoring and Amending warnings
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office Extra Tropical Cyclone - Gamede Old Tropical Cyclone - Favio Cold Front Very Cold Air Mass Satellite images
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Thunderstorm
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Fog-Aviation Danger
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Thunderstorm Fog-Aviation Danger
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High Resolution
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Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection Lightning Detection strikes Cape Town Weather RADAR De Aar Weather RADAR Radar Lightning detection
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Severe Bottom storm High likelihood of large hail
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Analysis of Routine observations Surface Upper air Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed
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Other Tools Webcams Independent Weather stations
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Process: Current After Event
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
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Any follow-up weather Rescue mission conditions Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects
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New Severe Weather Alert System
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Way Forward: 1.Re-define warning criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures. 2.Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness, 3.Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings 4.Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research
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South African Flash Flood Guidance System Delineation of River Basins Will Be Discussed Next
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Thank You For Your Time
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mount ains_winter.jpg www.capetown.dj/people/people.html http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpg http://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpg http://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictu res/thunderstorm.jpg http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578 http://www.iopara.ca/research.html
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