1. Traffic Volatility in FABEC Geoffroy Ville, DSNA, Chairman SC OPS
WAC 2018

2. ... defines the level of variation/fluctuation over time.
Definitions
... defines the level of variation/fluctuation over time.
... is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively. ?
volatility
vs.
(un)predictability
When traffic forecasts show possible strong fluctuations, a higher volatility leads to a higher unpredictability

3. A few examples (profile)
“Creative” horizontal or vertical profiles
Sharp turns
“Yoyo” flight

4. A few examples (route)
“Creative” route leads to sudden change in sector sequence

5. A few examples (effect on sector load)
Sudden increase on sector load

6. Impact of volatility on ANSPs
Different domains inducing volatility
Traffic forecast inaccuracy (STATFOR) => Influence capacity plans
Unit Rates => Traffic shifts
ATFM => Unpredictability leads to lowering of capacities
Staffing => possible shortage leading to sector configuration changes
FUA => Mil. activity and Civ. flight planning not always in line
Aircraft Operators => CFSP errors or crews not informed of updated PLN
Weather => Global warming and increase of adverse weather situations
Limits of IFPS => no What-If (so delete, refile), no detailed error messages
Challenge for ANSPs:
Traffic volatility and unpredictability requires higher flexibility!
Critical when reaching capacity limits
Need to measure “volatility” (present not planned, shift in time)