1. Presented to 2017 TRB Planning Applications Conference
Quantifying the Potential Mobility Impacts of AV/CV Technology on Older Drivers
Presented to
2017 TRB Planning Applications Conference

2.  “An approximate answer to the right problem is worth a good deal more than an exact answer to an approximate problem.” – John Tukey
So far I have had 3 going on 4 Careers
consultant, data science, now programmer
One of which was working at National Gallery
-Pollock – Because I always wanted to start a presentation with a painting
-But also because interpreting the information and defining our own story about it is hard
-And, to me, Scenario Planning is really about imagining likely stories
-And give participants the freedom to think about the future in terms of those stories
Perhaps you will never know causation?
Jackson Pollock Lavender Mist #1

3. The Question
In a fully autonomous and connected transportation system, might both cohorts (young drivers/pre-drivers and older drivers) see an increase in overall travel?

4. Trips and VMT
Note Males in younger fewer trips – higher VMT, Females Higher Trips – lower VMT
Decreasing VMT with age
Note Texas surveys and consistency
Sources TxDOT Travel Survey Program:
Combined Household Surveys: Amarillo, Lubbock, Victoria, Austin, Houston, San Antonio

5. Age Distributions: Austin
5.41%
13.74%
2014
2040

6. Age Distribution of Texas Drivers
2015
2040

7. Age Scenarios Tested: Austin
Scenario 1: 2015 Demographic/Age Stratification Total Trips:
2015 Household TSDC totals for the five-county region and the 2015 TSDC 0.5 population scenario by age/sex scenario.
Scenario 2: 2015 Demographic/Age Stratification Total Trips:
2015 household TSDC totals for the five-county region and the 2040 TSDC 0.5 population by age/sex scenario.
Scenario 3: 2040 Demographic/Age Stratification Total Trips:
2040 TSDC 0.5 population scenario (assuming that the 2015 average household size remains constant) for the five-county region and using the product of the 2015 TSDC age/sex distributions to the 2040 TSDC 0.5 population control total.
Scenario 4: 2040 Demographic/Age Stratification Total Trips:
2040 TSDC 0.5 population scenario (assuming that the 2015 average household size remains constant) and the product of the 2040 age/sex distributions to the TSDC 0.5 population control total.

8. Results – Person Trips

9. Results – Driver Trips

10. Scenarios Results Year and Trip Type 2015 Age/Gender Stratification
2040
Percent
Difference
2015 Person Trips
7,293,465
7,252,653
−0.56%
2040 Person Trips
10,900,739
10,838,409
−0.58%
2015 Driver Trips
4,947,792
5,025,158
1.54%
2040 Driver Trips
7,392,338
7,505,952
1.51%

11. Special Thanks
Wade Odell – TxDOT (Project Manager) Kevin Hall