1. Report from SEA RCC-Network/Singapore
Raizan Rahmat
Deputy Principal Research Scientist
The Space-based Weather and Climate Extreme Events Monitoring (SWCEM) Demonstration Project (SEMDP) Workshop
Jakarta, Indonesia, March 2017

2. Background to SEA RCC-Network

3. Road to SEA RCC-Network:
Res. 5: WMO RA V 16th Session (Jakarta, May 2014)
36th ASEAN SCMG Meeting (Laos, Sep 2014)
WMO RA V Forum for Directors (Nadi, Oct 2015)
2016:
Drafting and refinement of Implementation Plan
2017:
(1st half) Submission, endorsement and approval of plan
(Nov 2017) Start of Demonstration Phase

4. Functions and Structure
Structure of SEA RCC-Network approved in Mar 2017
3 Nodes: BMKG, PAGASA, and MSS (further contributions welcome)
Overall RCC Co-ordination: MSS (Singapore).
This role will be reviewed after 3 years and can be rotated among the Node lead institutions.
Mandatory Functions
Indonesia (BMKG)
Philippines (PAGASA)
Singapore (MSS)
(coordinating role)
Climate Monitoring
(e.g. ENSO, atmospheric anomalies, Climate Watch System)
Consortium Member (e.g. analysis charts, climate indices, trend monitoring)
Lead
Consortium Member (e.g. monitoring of MJO, subseasonal processes)
Data Services (e.g. historical data, climatologies)
Long-range Forecast (e.g. monthly/seasonal outlook)
Consortium Member (TC forecast)
Training (e.g. use of operational RCC products and services)
Distributed among 3 nodes
communicated with the two WMO Regional Training Centres (RTCs) in RA-V for coordination and planning
Recommended Functions
Climate Projections: RA V WG-CLS has organised a workshop to review the available climate projections for Southeast Asia, including processes for user engagement. The scope of the RCC Climate Projection Function will be better defined based on the outputs of this workshop.

5. Network Main Page (Demo Phase)
List of participating nodes and their functions
List of RCC services provided: ongoing or upcoming

6. BRAINSTORMING ACTIVITY – ASEANCOF-9 Nov ‘17, Hanoi
An important function of the RCC-Climate Monitoring is to issue a Climate Watch/ENSO Watch and this initial meeting will be used to discuss how the Climate Watch activity needs to developed.
Related issues discussed (led by Ms. Solis, PAGASA)
what extreme events would be of interest other than ENSO and TCs;
spatial scale of events to be considered widespread enough to be issued and monitored by the RCC
Issuance date and Updates
Others (?)

7. LRF Node of SEA RCC-Network

8. Products on LRF-Node
Outlook for rainfall and temperature updated monthly for the next month and the next 3-month season
Anomaly forecasts, tercile probabilistic forecasts, selected quintile probabilistic forecasts
“Way above- or below-normal” forecasts; upper or lowermost 20%)

9. Outlook for ‘extreme’ conditions
Probabilistic Forecast (Mar 2018)
ROC Verification (Mar)
Verification using ERA-Interim/Aphrodite
Going forward, using observations (blended satellite + ground station?)
In the future, considering indices (e.g. no. of rain/dry days) & subseasonal predictions
Data available for model verification/ assessment becomes more critical
Rainfall (Lowest quintile)
Temperature (Highest quintile)

10. (regional/national relevance)
Case Studies
(regional/national relevance)

11. Malaysia floods 2014-2015 (image: The STAR/ANN)
Indonesia forest fires mid 2015
(image: REUTERS)
Singapore dry spells early 2014 and mid 2015 (image: Channelnews Asia)

12. Influence of ENSO on the region
IRI/NOAA CAMS-OPI
Singapore Rainfall & ONI
El Nino – La Nina Rainfall Anomaly (Jun-Oct)
Influence of El Nino on rainfall stronger during Jun – Oct
Drier conditions  warmer temperatures
Past observations: Feb – Apr also warmer
Impact differs from event to event; moderate to stronger more significant

13. Influence of MJO on the region
Xavier et al, 2014, GRL (NDJFM)
Effect of MJO: evident at regional and local levels (e.g. NDJFM)
Easterly (northerly) wind anomalies during convective (supressed) phase
Locally, shifts in rainfall amount and duration distributions (not shown)
Stations over Singapore

14. Image credits: Reuters
Case Study (I)
Nov ’14 Flood
Area average 2N-8N, 101E to 105E
18 Nov (highest, ~60 mm/day area average)
Image credits: Reuters

15. Combined with cold surge (north-east anomaly)
MJO (P2-4) ∩ CS Days
CS MJO CS ∩ MJO
Nov 2014 MJO
(Lim et. al, 2017, JoC)
MJO was in phase 2-4
Combined with cold surge (north-east anomaly)
Anomalous wet conditions around Nov
60 mm/day based on TRMM
Area-averaged/extent of calibration
16-20 Nov Wind Anom.

16. Case Study (II) Early ‘14 Dry spell
62-day period (13 Jan to 15 Mar 2014): longest dry spell in Singapore since 1929.
Dry spell: > 15 consecutive days with less than 1 mm of rainfall registered at a climate station
NOAA CAMS OPI (IRI Data Library)

17. five driest Februaries (bottom) five wettest Februaries (top)
McBride et al, 2015, BAMS
North South cross-sections along 105°E of vertical motion
(omega, Pascal/sec) averaged between 98°48’E to 108°48’E from ERA-Interim
Mean Feb
Feb 2014
five driest Februaries (bottom)
five wettest Februaries (top)
500-hPa vertical motion

18. Case Study (III) 2015-2016 El Niño
Posed several issues: 1) compounded the early 2014 drought (low water levels for Singapore), 2) transboundary haze (late June-October 2015), 3) warm conditions (early 2016).
Events span different timescales:
Water resources (month-seasonal variations in rainfall)
Haze (subseasonal-month-seasonal variations in rainfall and wind conditions; typically 3-5 dry days for elevated risk)
Warm temperatures (subseasonal-month; persistent dry air/suppressed conditions for ~1 week)

19. Summary
Rule-of-thumb guidelines/definitions on monitoring of extreme conditions exist at regional/national level
However, there are challenges:
Different sectors have different definitions (meteorological/agricultural/hydrological droughts) at national/regional level
At what spatial extent does monitoring become useful/relevant for the region?
Limits to available observations
Station observations are sparse, satellite information are short duration (calculation of anomalies; climatology)
Calibration of satellite information to definition of extremes
Low latency (early release) products may not be as good quality as delayed releases

21. SUPPLEMENTARY SLIDES

22. Background: RCC Formation in RA V
Resolution 5: WMO RA V 16th Session (Jakarta, May 2014)
Establishment of two WMO RCC-Networks in RA V, one network for the Southeast Asian subregion and one network for the South-West Pacific subregion
36th ASEAN SCMG Meeting (Laos, Sep 2014)
WMO RA V Forum for Directors (Nadi, Oct 2015)
Adopted recommendations for establishment of RCC
Recommended RA V Working Group on Climate Services (WG-CLS) to convene to discuss implementation
WMO RA V WG-CLS (Singapore, Feb 2016)
Discussed on Implementation Plan of an RCC

23. RCC-Network Roadmap (for RA V SE Asia)
Res. 5: WMO RA V 16th Session (Jakarta, May 2014)
36th ASEAN SCMG Meeting (Laos, Sep 2014)
WMO RA V Forum for Directors (Nadi, Oct 2015)
( )
RA V resolution on implementation of RCC networks in SE Asia (and SW Pacific)
(Feb 16) Discussed on Implementation Plan of an RCC
(Apr 16) WMO invited NMHSs (RA V SE Asia) for potential national contributions to RCC Network
(Apr-Oct 16) Collated proposed contributions from NMHSs
(Nov 16) At technical Expert Meeting (Manila) developed draft Implementation Plan (org. & tech. details)
(Dec 16-Jan 17) Refined Implementation Plan
(Feb 17) Chair RA V WG-CLS submitted to President of RA V the Implementation Plan
(Mar 17) Implementation Plan endorsed by President of RA V, supported by Mgmt Group and approved
(Nov 2017 onwards) Demonstration Phase of RCC. Duration: 1-2 year period
WMO RA V WG CLS (Singapore)