1. 3rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit
Tougher Choices
Jim Dewey
3rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit
Tampa, Florida
October 16, 2014

2. 1980s Apparent Potential Fading
By mid 1980s
Income per capita ≈ US
K-12 $/student near US
Universities rising
Future with high-skill jobs seemed in reach
Falling income per capita in the 1990s and 2000s
fluctuation around parity or
decline masked by the housing bubble?
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Relative productivity falling
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

4. Tougher Choices (2014) downward trend extremely hard to change
Low skill starting point plus feedback effects
Skilled jobs go to cities with lots of skilled jobs
Labor market polarization
Baby boom retirees
No room to invest at current tax rates
No support to raise tax rates
Report at collinsinstitute.fsu.edu

5. Labor Market Polarization
Routine Jobs
Mid-skill
Replaced by automation and info tech
Non Routine Jobs
Cognitive: High-skill
Manual: Low-skill
Wage gains concentrated in advanced degrees, certain STEM fields

6. Accounting for Florida’s Low Job Skill

7. Growing Retiree Influence
Age 65+ in 2010
FL 17%
US 13%
Age 65+ in FL in 2030
1 in 3 Adults
2 in 5 voters
Crowd out other export industries
Change the nature of cities
Less supportive of investment?
Shift taxes to business

8. Lagging Human Capital Investment
State Appropriation plus Net Tuition per FTE
by Fiscal Year (FY 2013 Dollars)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Florida
8,768
8,447
7,867
7,416 US
11,331
11,419
11,226
11,523
FL/US
77%
74%
70%
64%
FL Rank 49 50
Prior to the recession, state funding average, tuition low
During recession, state fuinding fell sharply
50% increase in BOTH to catch US in FY 2013
Real K-12 teacher salaries falling, 84% of US average in FY 2014.
Revenue data from State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO).
Deflated using the GDP deflator from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
State appropriation recovered some in FYs 2014, 2015, but comparative data is not yet available for those years.

9. Summary
Relative to US: income per capita ↓, output per worker ↓, high-skill job share ↓ , low-skill job share ↑
Trend hard to change due to five mutually reinforcing factors
Low starting point plus feedback effects
Labor market polarization
Baby boom retirees
No room to invest at current tax rates
No support to raise tax rates
Florida will likely be the subtropical corner of a safe, rich country, highly specialized in retirees and tourists
There are worse things to be, but we could have been better
Maybe we still can be better, but it will cost a lot more