1. COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund Clive Bowman Clim-ATIC project coordinator UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008

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3. Causes of climate change * IPCC 2007 It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years *

4. Fossil fuels used in transport

5. Domestic activities

6. Industry and manufacturing

7. Land management

8. Land use change and Forestry emissions 8% Energy 37% Public 2% Residential 11% Agricultural 12% Business 12% Transport 17% Scottish Green House Gas Emissions Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003 Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report Waste 1%

9. Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover. Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts. SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 Its already happening! And its going to get worse!

10. average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961 Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004 SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006

11. UK top 10 warmest years Year (°C) Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000 1998 +0.52 2005 +0.48 2003 +0.46 2002 +0.46 2004 +0.43 2006 +0.42 2007 (Jan-Nov) +0.41 2001 +0.40 1997 +0.36 1995 +0.28 Difference from average with respect to 1961-90 Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000 2007 Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007

12. Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5 SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with: an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west; an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country. Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer

13. Changes in winter river flows at selected locations SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006 high winter flow frequencies on western source rivers have increased over the past two decades

16. Profile A1A2B1B2 Population growth lowhighlowmedium GDP growth very highmediumhighmedium Energy use very highhighlowmedium Land- use changes lowmedium/highhighmedium Resource availability mediumlow medium Pace of technological change rapidslowmedium Change favouring F fossil T non fossil B balanced regionalefficiency & dematerialization dynamics as usual Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines A2 B1 B2

17. The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios

18. Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 ( ºC) for IPCC scenarios 5.8 5.2

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20. Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100

21. AspectImplications Water resource More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply Biodiversity Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season Higher temperatures less favourable for native species High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations) Marine Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties Loss of traditional commercial fishery Land surface Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season) Human health Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress Fewer cold-related deaths Water quality Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality Air quality Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce Weather The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events. Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPAs State of the Environment Report 2006

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23. Communities are on the front line! How can they adapt?

24. The Clim-ATIC project 2.35 Million Euro Understanding climate change adaptation at a community level for northern regions European Regional Development Funds Northern Periphery Programme 2007 - 2013. www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund

26. 5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park Flora, Sogn og Fjordane County of Vasterbotten, and Åre Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland Uummannaq Illulissat Sisimiut Iceland Faroe Islands

27. Adaptation to Climate change impacts anticipatory or reactive? The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes. Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community. Having the ability to adapt is called adaptive capacity and this is increased through: 1.knowledge 2.experience 3.resources

28. Diagram adapted from Finlands National Adaptation Strategy (2005) Socio-economic development Changes in natural systems Climate Change Impacts AdvantagesDisadvantages Adaptive capacity OpportunitiesThreats MitigationAdaptation Decision making

29. Build community capacity through knowledge with communities RovaniemiIlulissatCairngorms National Park FloraSogn og Fjordane LyckseleGlen Urquhart Culture and traditions Flooding Tourism Snow activities Fishing Tourism Sustainable transport Sustainable energy management Natural heritage Land use management Agriculture Tourism Biodiversity Risk management Sea level rise Health Energy management Business development County Plan for Climate and Energy Tourism Reindeer herding Forestry Agriculture Transportation Energy systems Snow cover Flooding Land use management Sustainable flood risk management Agriculture New development Tourism

30. Current climate Community Vulnerability Scenarios Current society Future climate change scenarios Future social change scenarios climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge Knowledge sources

31. Climate change impact visualisations Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings Community adaptation action plans Knowledge communication and use

32. Building adaptation knowledge with communities 11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park

33. Forest owners in Sweden

34. Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland

35. Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart

36. Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden

37. Building community capacity through experience sustainable transport tourism opportunities sustainable energy management risk management and response Finland New tourism opportunities GIS flood mapping for development planning Greenland Dog sledging on thin ice! Climate change tourism and sustainable huts Fish waste to Bio- gas Norway Impacts on energy supply infrastructure Land slides and public warning system Scotland Trial of EV for community use Tourism opportunities and ski area adaptation Wood fuel cooperative – local business and suppliers River restoration project - sustainable flood management Sweden Winter tourism and sustainable transport project - partnership of ski industry and LA Woodland owners management plans

38. Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland Adaptation demonstration projects

39. Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland

40. Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland

41. in Greenland Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland

42. Risk and response management in Norway

43. Tourism destination management in Scotland

44. GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland

45. River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart

46. Trial of EV for community use

47. The Clim-ATIC project www.clim-atic.org www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund