1. NM USER FORUM 2014 Tzvetomir Blajev Operational Safety Coordinator 30/01/2014 Natural hazards and weather risk management: whats new? Network WX Resilience

2. 2EUROCONTROL Operational Safety2 One cant do anything about the weather! ? US NTSB – over 20% of the aviation accidents More than 20% of the airport delays Boeing survey – the highest training concern Two thirds of the wx delays are avoidable (FAA)?

3. 3EUROCONTROL Operational Safety3 ….But it is a complex stuff….

4. 4 The Network WX Resilience Roadmap Translation: Thresholds Constraints Capacity Risks Impact Assessment Actual Demand Actual Resources Configurations Decision Making Options Simulation Execution Monitoring 3d Information Nat Hazards WX Forecast WX Nowcast 70% likelihood for 45 knots wind at 3000ft at EDDF High Risk of Capacity Reduction by 20% Current RWY configuration and resources – 5% reduction Can be accommodated without regulation SCOPE: WX RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

5. 5 Weather Forecast Natural Hazards Information PROBABILITY MODELS RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS IMPACT MODELS INTERFACE FOR NOP INTEGRATION STAND ALONE HMI DISPLAY TEXT OUTPUTS EUROCONTROL NM AND OTHER STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATION VOLCANIC ASH HAZARD VALID 052114 ------------ RISK HIGH The Architecture of the tool

6. 6 Offers a quick glance of important information and a point of entry for dynamically investigating detailed information about upcoming hazards Risks due to meteorological hazards Reported natural hazards, if any. Medium Risk High Risk Landing Page

7. 7 Landing Page OnlyMap Only Landing Page Over Map Map Over Landing Page The user can select their desired layout Map – customisable layout

8. 8 The map-based display of hazard information accompanies the Landing Page. The user can apply various filters to customize the view. Offers a complete view spanning from high-level down to fine detail to support quick and thorough assessments. Map

9. 9 End = 2013-11-20T04:00:00Z Natural Hazard: Fire

10. 10 Meta data shows the Start Time which might be renamed time of occurrence. The data also lists the End Time, which defines the latest time at which the Natural Hazard will be shown in the HMI (default 24 hours after occurrence) End = 2013-11-20T08:00:00Z Natural Hazard: Chemical dispersion

11. 11Top 5 Safety Priorities11 What do we need from the model 1.SUPPORT FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT (Article 4 1. (h) 677/2011) Single Network picture Consistent impact assessment approach Anticipating Network-wide impacts 2.MONITORING NETWORK PERFORMANCE (Article 20 1(a) 677/2011) Calibrate the historical daily delays with the actual impact risk 3.COMMON REFERENCE PLATFORM (Article 4 3. (a) to (c) 677/2011) Network alerts

12. 12Top 5 Safety Priorities12 Numerical forecast model 6 hours refresh rate, starting at 0100 Z 48 hours (at least) look-ahead horizon Hourly temporal resolution

13. 13Top 5 Safety Priorities13 Natural Hazards This is deterministic and observation-based data: 1.Volcanic Ash 2.Nuclear Emissions 3.Hazardous Chemical Dispersion 4.Fire 5.Earthquake 6.Flooding 7.Space Weather No risk score is calculated, map will indicate the location of the hazard, as defined by the authoritative source

14. 14Top 5 Safety Priorities14 Weather Airport 1.Ceiling and visibility 2.Surface winds 3.3000ft wind 4.Winter weather 5.Terminal convection En-route 6.Convective weather en-route

15. 15Top 5 Safety Priorities15 Ensemble prediction system

16. 16Top 5 Safety Priorities16 Capacity Reduction Visibility thresholds Ceiling thresholds Each cell contains performance reduction estimates (0 – 100%) provided by EUROCONTROL experts Tables for each hazard and each airspace resource Performance reduction for each resource

17. 17Top 5 Safety Priorities17 Geographical scope

18. 18 Maturity of the resilience process DECISION MAKING TRANSLATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT WEATHER IMPLICIT DECISION MAKING BASELINE DATA OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE REACTIVE LOCAL RESOURCES IMPACT ASSESSMENT SEGREGATED INFORMATION SOURCES GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE BASED ON REFERENCE IMPACT DATA PROACTIVE ANTICIPATED IMPACT CROSSCHECKED INFORMATION SOURCES EXPLICIT DECISION MAKING BASED ON DECISION IMPACT DATA NETWORK-WIDE IMPACT ASSESSMENT COORDINATED INFORMATION SOURCES SHARED DECISION MAKING PROGNOSTIC TRANSLATION PROCESS PROGNOSTIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT INTEGRATED INFORMATION SOURCES M1 M2 M3 M4

19. 19 TRANSLATION DATA BASED ON OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE BASED ON REFERENCE IMPACT DATA BASED ON DECISION IMPACT DATA PROGNOSTIC TRANSLATION PROCESS M1 M2 M3 M4 Data are based on NM previous operational experience No validation of the data against the actual operations. Both ATC capacity impact data and NM impact data are based on the ANSP decision triggers Periodic validation based on data Simulations or analytical models for the actual operational conditions Continuous validation of the data against the actual operations. Reference feedback from ANSP – credible to triger coordination NM Network impact data is based on analysis of historical data Periodic validation based on judgement supported with data Maturity of the impact models

20. 20EUROCONTROL Operational Safety20 Questions?