1. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations: New FTA systems For anticipatory action in a fast-changing world
Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2,
Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4
1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria;
2 Malta Council for Science and Technology, Malta;
3 Impetu Solutions, Spain
4 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Spain;

2. Outline Guiding Questions Drivers of FTA
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Outline
Guiding Questions
Drivers of FTA
Towards a Conceptual Framework for FTA systems
Types of Transformations
Types of governance modes in FTA systems
Types of organisational models of FTA
Mapping of FTA systems in practice
Conclusions

3. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Guiding Questions
What areas and types of transformations will we need to be prepared to handle? And what kinds of requirements for FTA result from these?
What kinds of models for FTA systems do exist? How can they be systematized in conceptual terms?
What kinds of models do work in practice? Which ones are suitable to meet which requirements? What are the experiences?
What do these findings suggest with regard to the future direction to take for organising FTA?

4. Transformations are driving governments and businesses;
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Introduction
Transformations are driving governments and businesses;
to shift FTA activities from individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects,
to invest in developing in-house competencies for coping with sudden change
Advantages and disadvantages of emerging models of FTA systems
This is leading to combinations of elements from different systems

5. Drivers of change in FTA
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations Paper title]
Drivers of change in FTA
External
The fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment is leading to a tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision making.
This is rendering the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult and challenging.
Internal
There are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence which are linked to the need to achieve coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be centrally embedded in policy and decision making, and to achieve this embedding quickly and strategically.

6. Towards a Conceptual Framework
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Towards a Conceptual Framework
Our frame of analysis of FTA systems builds on
the different types of transformations
taking into account the speed of change and types of responses they generate
the types of wider institutional context
governance modes based on density of group ties and influence of external rules
the different organisational models for FTA
three main types of models

7. Types of Transformation

9. FTA systems and modes of governance

10. Modes of Governance

11. Ideal-type models of FTA
FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Ideal-type models of FTA
individual FTA projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives
dedicated FTA units providing continuous input to their embedding or mother organisations
FTA networks as informal yet stable settings allowing the bundling or coordination of resources and competencies

13. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Conclusions
New kinds of FTA and associated rationales for FTA are emerging in response to a highly dynamic environment (disruptive events) and to societal challenges
robustness and adaptability of the R&I ecology
new missions in response to societal challenges
customisation to particular local, national, global contexts
preparation of new forms of joint action (e.g. Joint Programming)
FTA facility tending towards more embedded, internationally networked and multifunctional setups addressing various needs reactively and proactively.
FTA practice indicates considerable diversity of FTA approaches and systems; experimenting with combinations of types of transformations, modes of governance and organisational models

14. FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
Conclusions
The complementarity between the models of FTA is apparent with service providers and FTA units, thus blurring the divide between the two, with both drawing extensively on networks, and dedicated units being involved in projects/programmes.
The shift from projects and programmes of short duration to institutionalised forms of FTA is nevertheless apparent due to a more demanding policy environment and the need for more proactive approaches.
Changing mindsets are needed within firms, government organisations and society in order to sensitize individuals to use FTA to prepare for structural changes