1. Lecture 19: Triumphalism and the 1990s
May 10, 2010

2. What now? Remake the world—again? We won! Or they lost?
Failure of Soviet political model
Failure of empire
Failure of Soviet economic model
The End of History? (Francis Fukuyama, 1989)
Western liberal democracy as “the final form of human government”
End of large-scale conflict involving large states
Criticism: Is liberal democracy really inevitable, or dependent on conditions?
Attraction of US system depends on attraction of US
High level of abstraction misses much of what matters

3. US power

4. Gulf War I: Triumph with Unforeseen Consequences

5. Containment of Iraq

6. Bush I’s “New World Order”
Twice this century, out of the horrors of war hope emerged for enduring peace. Twice before, those hopes proved to be a distant dream, beyond the grasp of man…
Now, we can see a new world coming into view. A world in which there is the very real prospect of a new world order. In the words of Winston Churchill, a "world order" in which "the principles of justice and fair play ... protect the weak against the strong ..." A world where the United Nations, freed from cold war stalemate, is poised to fulfill the historic vision of its founders. A world in which freedom and respect for human rights find a home among all nations.

7. Multilateralism Integrate eastern bloc into multilateral institutions
Unite Germany, expand NATO

8. NATO Expansion

9. Why Expand NATO? Incentives for ex-communist bloc
Security against resurgent Russia?
Symbolism
Because it was there (sunk costs)
Dealing with emerging threats
Problem? Russia not happy

10. Multilateralism Integrate eastern bloc into multilateral institutions
Unite Germany, expand NATO
New trade agreements:
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
World Trade Organization (WTO)
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum

11. What APEC is Really About

12. Victory Day!