1. Early warning system based on the history of disasters in a region Victor Stefanescu, Ph.D.D. National Meteorological Administration of Romania University of Bucharest – Faculty of Physics

2. Aim and scope of the project RAISING AWARENESS OF THE FORECASTERS STATISTICS ON PAST DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/AREA SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION AND MITIGATION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ENHANCING THE WARNING AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES

3. Means to achieve the goals RAISING AWARENESS OF THE FORECASTERS STATISTICS ON PAST DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/AREA SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION AND MITIGATION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ENHANCING THE WARNING AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES Software system made of interconnected applications

4. Means to achieve the goals Software system made of interconnected applications Webapplications Desktop applications Relational databases (RDBMS) Various programming languages

5. Methodology – based on history of past disasters Area of interest Previous,hazardouscontext Current context Worst case scenarios in themselves Hazardevaluation

6. Hazard assessment - Types of events

7. Information input Hydrology Meteorology Software applications Data aggregation (RDBMS)

8. Information output Software applications Data aggregation (RDBMS) Statistics Suggestions for action

9. Output – Information flow Current context Previous,hazardouscontext Qualitative & quantitative comparison Forecasters % Probabilities % Warning messages issued automatically

10. Output – Information flow Forecasters Warning messages for the general public Meteorological information

11. Output – Information flow Software system Preparedness information Early warning messages for the authorities

12. Information input – Document an event

14. Information output

16. Hazard evaluation of current context Using a – You Are Here – approach for identifying potentially hazardous contexts

17. Hazard evaluation of current context - GEOGRAPHICAL overview - Counties in Romania with most flash flood events You are here

18. Hazard evaluation of current context - TEMPORAL overview - Monthly distribution of flash flood events You are here

19. Hazard evaluation of current context - SYNOPTICAL overview - Prevalent Grosswetterlagen during flash flood events You are here

20. Hazard evaluation of current context - CLIMATOLOGICAL overview - North Atlantic Oscillation 54.8% of the events have occured when NAO was smaller than -1.0 75.3% of the events have occurred when NAO was in its negative phase You are here

21. Practical use 1.Improvement of hazard evaluation methods, by expanding the set of events that statisics is made upon 2.Expanding the content of hazardous weather warnings with information dedicated to: -people who may be affected, for instance customized warnings -people who are involved directly in disaster prevention and mitigation, for instance suggesting evacuation routes The system is under continual development and testing.

22. Thank you for attending this presentation I would like to convey, on behalf of all my colleagues, our sincerest and deepest feelings of solidarity and sympathy with the people of Japan during their plight, caused by the March 11 th earthquake and subsequent disasters.