1. 2009 OCTA Annual Meeting General Session:
“Staying Upbeat In An Economic Downturn”
Jimmy Schaeffler, Chairman & CSO

2. U.S. Multichannel Video Subscriber Projections

3. U.S. DBS Subscriber Projections

4. U.S. Telco Subscriber Projections

5. U.S. Cable Subscriber Projections

6. ADVANCED SERVICES DVR, HDTV, iTV, Broadband
Cable’s Long-term Advantage: Subscribers Are Starting To Be More Driven By Service Offerings and Advanced Features, and Less By Service and Price
VoIP is a Key Cable Advantage: Comcast Is 3rd Largest U.S. Residential Phone Service Provider, Reaching More Than 6.5 Million Customers
Cable and DBS: Investing Heavily In HDTV, DVR, and On-Demand Services (Result Is Commoditization)
Net/Net: Consumers Benefit, But The Competitive Dynamic May Favor Cable in the Long-term, If Cable Can Drive More Consumer Choice

7. Cable vs. Satellite vs. Telco
THE U.S. MCV PLAYERS
Cable vs. Satellite vs. Telco
Satellite
’09: Maintains Focus on DVR and HD; Sling? Sirius XM?
’09: Problem for DISH: Piracy?
’10: Estimated Lower Annual Sub Growth, Due To More Effective Competition from Cable and Telcos
Cable
Endured the mid-’80s Economic Crisis, By Growing Sub Base 5% Annually; Yet Can’t Be Slow Again to React
Continue Sub Growth by Upselling Digital, Broadband, DVR, VoIP, iTV, etc.
Telco
Wildcard, With Potential Sub Growth Exceeding 10 mil. by 2014
ROI Is Still Questionable, Considering Massive Capital Expenditure

8. Key MCV Points
Satellite May Be Stalling; Cable Looks Much Stronger; Telcos Stay Long-term Threat
Long-term Advantage Favors Cable, With Its Big Pipe, Infrastructure, and Product Choices, Plus Great Flex
Landscape Is Expanding:
To Voice, Internet/Broadband, Audio/Video, Robust 2-Way Services, Personalized Content
Growth Still Building on DVRs, VOD, iTV, HDTV, Gaming, Mobile, Broadband, Voice

9. MCV Notables/Some Watch Fors
Theme : Video Everywhere
Theme: Personalized Content
RS-DVR
ZillionTV
iTV

10. Cable/Sat/Telco/Bdctg. Strategic Bandwidth Positioning
Return Path Performance - HIGH
Digital Cable
Telco
Digital Broadcasters
Scalability - LOW
Scalability - HIGH
Satellite TV
Analog Cable
Return Path Performance - LOW

11. Digital Must Haves!

12. Jimmy Schaeffler
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