1. CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group
Summary of June 21, 2012
Session at 17th CESM Workshop

2. CESM and Societal Dimensions
Develop collaborations between the CESM community & those working on issues relating societal dimensions and climate change
CESM
WATER IA

3. IAM topics of interest Land use Urban areas and energy use
Water in IAMs
Forestry management
Assessing renewable energy potentials
Air quality, climate, and impacts

4. Types of IAM-ESM interactions
Emissions
IAM
ESM
Land use
Climate A.
Off-line
Hum
Env
Land
Atm.
Ocean
Chem
IAM
ESM B.
Hum
Env
Improved
Land
Atm.
Ocean
Chem
IAM
ESM C.
Hum
Improved
Land
Atm.
Ocean
Chem
Env
IAM
ESM D.
Full
coupling
Hum
Env
Land
Atm.
Ocean
Chem
Based on van Vuuren et al., 2012, ERL.

5. THESIS Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration & Scaling
Impact & Adaptation Assessment
iPETS
Integrated
Assessment
Model
CESM
Community Earth
System Model
THESIS Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration & Scaling
Data Human System
Data
Earth System
Human
System
Earth
urban
agriculture
forests
Impacts
Visualization & Decision Support
Evaluation & Uncertainty Analysis
Your Favorite
EaSM2 Proposal. PI: O’Neill (NCAR); Co-PIs: Lawrence, Levis, Oleson (NCAR), Feddema (U. Kansas), Jain (U. Illinois), Barton (ASU)

6. Land Use: Overarching Questions
How sensitive is regional climate to differences in land use and land cover change?
How sensitive are land use decisions to differences in regional climate change?

7. Possible Near-Term Activities
Test sensitivity of climate outcomes in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to land use assumptions
Examine the climate implications of IAM scenarios that make alternative assumptions about agricultural productivity
Test the implications of full IAM-CESM coupling vs one-way coupling

8. Three Major Goals of iESM
Create a first generation integrated Earth System Model (iESM) with both the human components of an IAM and a physical ESM.
Further develop components and linkages within the iESM and apply the model to improve our understanding of the coupled physical, ecological, and human system.
Foster a community of users and applications of iESM.

9. What core capabilities does this provide?
Ability to factor climate change effects into analyses of mitigation strategies.
Quantification of resource demands required to address climate change.
Determination of how coupling affects the climate-energy-land system: Comparison to uncoupled approaches
The development of an iESM means that fully consistent analysis of potential future climate change, emissions mitigation options, and impacts and adaptation options will be possible.

10. iESM = 4 Models: GCAM, GLM, CLM, & CESM
Fossil Fuel & Industrial Emissions (Gridded)
GCAM
(Human Dimensions Elements only;
15 ghgs, aerosols, SLS; 14 geopolitical regions; 151 Ecoregions)
2. GLM
(½ x ½ degree grid land-use-land-cover.)
ESM1
(3. CLM &
4. CESM)
Land Use
LU-LC
This provides the same capability as the RCP+CMIP process.

11. Exploratory simulations with iESM
iESM RCP Emulation
Fossil fuel emissions
GCAM
CLM/CESM
GLM
C stocks, productivity
iESM Terrestrial Feedbacks
Climate
Up/down scaling
(space and time)
Atm CO2

12. Next steps with iESM Model is now being vetted by iESM science team.
Model has been described to SDWG: Feb. and Jun. 2012
During fall 2012:
Share code on read-only basis with SDWG co-chairs
Prepare and share papers on iESM
Prepare and share scientific and user guides
Brief Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium
Lay groundwork for sharing iESM output.

13. Next steps (cont.) During winter 2013 SDWG meeting:
Review iESM capability with the SDWG
Assess issues of extensibility
Pending outcome of this meeting, release in Dec. 2013?

14. The End