1. Is there a Cost Tipping point for e-journals?
NAS Symposium on e-STM publishing and its implications: Cost of Publication
May 19-20, 2003
Gordon Tibbitts, President Blackwell Publishing USA

2. Where is the cost Tipping point?
Current Print+e Costs of For-Profit Publishers (% of Sale)
* Here are the costs associated with current for-profit publishers. There are two flavors: those that publish mostly on behalf of the Society Community and those that own most of their content.
* G&A allocated to indirect O/H

3. Where is the cost Tipping Point?
Current e-cost components
e-costs are currently absorbed within the indirect overheads for most for-profit publishers.
e-costs are heavily related to the spend on technology. As such it is logical to view them as technology companies do by breaking costs into Development, Maintenance and Operations.
Technology is not cheap to run.
* IT is 16% of O/H

4. Where is the cost Tipping point?
Where will costs go? We may have big “P” and big “e!” P e
Print Journal
e-Journal
Shared Costs
Print is subsidizing electronic costs. We will still incur traditional publishing-type costs even if we go all electronic.
* Low print runs cost more and keeping pace with technology and innovation costs more so we may be headed for big P and big e.

5. Where is the cost Tipping point?
Here are some trends affecting cost
Trends up in articles, supplementary data, back-issues, customer support, new on-line features, speed requirements, archive/repository alternatives, and new business entrants
Technology trends driving costs down: Office 03’ & Word 11, PDF+
Trends down in individual subscribers in favor of consortia, money everyone has to spend, and flagrant pricing?
Rapidly rising institutional prices responding to the shift on-line, the drops in subscribers above and “acknowledged” business Risks
The Complexity of layout, graphics, and linking increase cost AND the need for speed, Breadth of content, and Quality requirements drive costs up, as usual.

6. Where is the Cost Tipping point?
Answer: There is a COST SHIFTING POINT now!
Publishers are moving more savings and profits into spending on e-journals and related services.
We will end up with a big “P” and a big “e” with the big “P” shrinking eventually as hardcopy is dropped.
I have found technology to shift from “like-to-have” to “must-have” very rapidly, so big “e” is likely to stay.
On a positive note here is what you can do to keep big “e” in check: Focus on simpler solutions (PDF+), think phases of implementation, and encourage cooperative efforts (CrossRef).