1. Floodproofing Training Program Part 2: Assessing Risk COURSE# 14001
Flood Panel™
Floodproofing Training Program
Part 2: Assessing Risk
COURSE# 14001
© Flood Panel 2014
April 28, 2014

2. About The Program:
Due to the ever growing threat of flooding across America and the Federal government removing subsidies for the National Flood Insurance Program, there are incentives for commercial building owners to install dry flood proofing mechanisms that mitigate the impacts from flooding.
Flood Panel designs, sources, installs and maintains high-quality flood protection products on commercial construction projects. The aluminum Flood Panel are flood barriers that will last for the life of the buildings if properly installed and maintained.
An elite team of expert architects, engineers and contractors have been identified, by Flood Panel, to train industry professionals on the installation and deployment of their vast array of flood protection products. The training is relevant to structural engineers, architects, shell contractors, construction professionals and commercial building owners.
The nation’s vulnerability to flooding is increasing. Because new insurance policies and the modernization of FEMA’s flood maps affecting property insurance and insurability, there is a great demand for Flood Panel products to be installed at commercial properties.

3. William L. Coulbourne, P.E. bill@coulbourneconsulting.com
Floodproofing Commercial Buildings
William L. Coulbourne, P.E.
Adam Reeder, P.E.

4. Focus: Commercial buildings in the 100 year flood zone
Today’s Program Outline:
Is flood risk a problem for your clients?
Estimate the risks’ frequency and magnitude
Alternatives Solutions to address the problem
System Designs
Implementation
Operation and maintenance
Factors in System Selection
Design Process
Load Calculations
1 Flood Zones, Codes, Insurance
2 Assessing Risk
3 Alternatives
4 Functional specifications
5 Dry Floodproofing Systems
6 System Design

5. Program Outline: Session 1: Flood Zones, codes and insurance
Session 2: Dry floodproofing
What is it?
How is it done?
Session 3: Flood loads and protection products
Session 4: Conducting on-site assessments

6. Session 2: Assessing and Communicating Flood Risk Commercial buildings Owners and Architects

7. Learning Objectives: Understand flooding safety margins
Assess frequency and magnitude of flood risk to specific commercial buildings
Learn methods to communicate flood hazard risks to owners and tenants

8. New Challenge: Costs of flood
Major Floods
National Flood Insurance Program changes
Flood Map changes
Higher waters
Wider areas
Building Code Changes
IBC
NYC Dept. of Bldgs.
etc.
Insurance changes
Rates 10x
Standards higher
Solutions limited
Flood protection:
Certification Required
Flood Certificate =
Significantly lower rates
Code compliance

9. Defining Risk and Residual Risk:
Potential losses associated with a hazard
Defined in terms of:
Costs and Consequences
Expected probability and frequency
Exposure to hazard
Residual Risk
Level of risk not offset by hazard-resistant design or insurance
Must be accepted by the property owner

10. Assess Potential Consequences:
Rule of thumb
Construction/replacement cost per square foot
Applied to floodable levels
Add in costs of business disruption
Realistic period for resumption of operations after flood
much longer than you think
Or, ask the insurer

11. Assess: Probability of Occurrence
Evaluate for a given time period
(e.g.: the life of the structure)
Consider frequent/less severe events
Consider less frequent/more severe events
Codes and standards
Provide protection to specified recurrence intervals
Intended to provide life-safety protection
Provide ‘minimum’ property protection
CCM p. 6-3

12. Probability of Natural Hazard Event Occurrence
Length of Period (Years)
Frequency – Recurrence Interval
10-YR
25-YR
50-YR
100-YR
500-YR
1,000-YR 1
10% 4% 2% 1%
0.2%
0.1% 10
65%
34%
18% 20
88%
56%
33% 3% 25
93%
64%
40%
22% 5% 30
96%
71%
45%
26% 7% 50
99+%
87%
39% 70
99.94+%
94%
76%
51%
13%
100
99.99+%
98%
63%
Let’s use rolling dice as an example to explain probabilities. If I have one die the chance of rolling a 6 is 1/6, so what does that mean if I roll it six times? Does that mean it is 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6…, which would equal 6/6 or 100% chance. We know this isn’t the case, so what’s going on here? It is actually better represented by the chances of not rolling a 6. Therefore we would look at 5/6 or the chance of not rolling a six. Further if we draw a diagram showing each possibility the die could turn up for each roll we find out that counting the number of possibilities that it is more simple to just multiply the each chance that it will not come up as 6 by the next chance it will not come up and so on. The equation therefore can be simplified as 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6…, which gives us the chance that you would not roll a six. If we subtract that number from 1 or 100% we get the chance you would roll a 6 over six attempts. The number is actually 66.5% not 100%. To further simplify this we can look at it as 1 minus 5/6 to the 6th power. Using this approach for a 100-year flood we can say that there is an annual chance of 99% that a 100-year flood will not happen in a year. If we look at it over 30 years we would say 99/100 to the 30th power, which will result in approximately 74%, so there is a 74% chance you will not have a 100-year event over 30 years. If we subtract that 74% chance from a 100 percent chance or = .26 or a 26% chance over 30 years you would have a 100 year flood.
Pn = 1 – (1-Pa)n ; where Pa = annual probability, and n = length of period

13. Compare Flood to Other Dangers
40%
50 Year Flood
Chance in
30 years*
Chance in one single year
35%
30%
100 Year Flood
25%
1 %
20%
0.8%
Burglary
15%
0.6%
Note to Instructors: Owners protect against burglary and fire even though a flood is more likely if they live in the SFHA
Explain misconception of 100-year flood event
Fire
10%
0.4% 5%
0.2%
Magnitude 7 earthquake
within 100 miles of NYC*
*New York NY
*FEMA 0% 0%
Low
Consequence Severity
Very High

14. Risk Reduction and Residual Risk
2 ways to Reduce/Manage Risk
Physically through mitigation
Financially through insurance
Risk reduction is combination of:
Physical measures, such as building codes, design and construction, and best practices
Factors of safety, i.e., freeboard
Insurance measures
Residual risk remains
Significantly less than initial risk
CCM p. 6-5

15. Reducing and Managing Risk through Building Codes
Risk Categories
Defined in ASCE 7-10, 2012 IBC and NYC Code “G”
Higher risk category requires stronger design
Category II: Majority of residential, commercial, industrial buildings
Category III: Many occupants (theaters, schools, prisons)
Category IV: Critical facilities (hospitals, fire stations)
NYC building codes require higher freeboard for Category III and IV

16. 100 year vs. 500 year flood
Constructing to the 500-year flood greatly reduces the risk of being flooded over the next 30 years
Buildings constructed to the 0.2-percent-annual-change flood elevation
Buildings constructed to BFE
BFE
BFE +3
Illustration A, Chapter 6: Comparison of the percent chance of houses being flooded over a 30-year period after being elevated to the BFE (left) and the 0.2-percent-annual-chance flood elevation (right)

17. Reducing and Managing Risk by Adding Freeboard
Provides additional protection for floods exceeding the base Flood elevation (BFE)
Results in lower flood insurance premiums
Accounts for future, and changing, conditions
Remaining Risk management
Insurance
National Flood Insurance
Self-insurance
Residual Risk remains after insurance
Purchasing insurance is not a substitute for a properly designed and constructed building.
Insurance is a way of reducing financial exposure to residual risk.
CCM p. 6-10

18. Communicating Risk to Clients
Communicate risk to owners
Use technical terms
Use non-technical terms
Owners often determine acceptable level of risk based on:
Potential damage
Cost
Aesthetics
CCM p. 6-13

19. Risk reduction steps Total risk Building Codes Construct -ion
Flood Proofing
Insurance
Residual Risk

20. Insurance Example Downtown Bistro First Floor
Floor elevation: 1 ft below BFE
First Floor
Area 10,000 sq ft
Perimeter 400 ft
Value psf $200
Value $2M
Without floodproofing
Elevation +/- BFE -1 ft
Insurance rate/$100/yr $4.37
Insurance cost/yr $87,400
Further reading:
National Flood Insurance Program,
Flood insurance Manual,
1 June 2014, Section 5 “Rating”
XVII, V, VI, VII, VIII

21. Insurance Example Downtown Bistro Floor elevation: 1 ft below BFE
Without With floodproofing floodproofing
Elevation +/- BFE -1 ft +2 ft
Insurance rate/$100/yr $4.37 $0.36
Insurance cost/yr $87,400 $7,200
Insurance cost difference $80,200
Dry Floodproof cost, one time ($81,600)
Ten year net savings $720,400
Selecting optimum
dry floodproof height
Basis: 10 Yr Savings, Net
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000 $- -1 1 2 3
+ / - BFE feet

22. Practical steps: It Takes a Team
Teammate
Key Roles
Qualities
Architects
Building Systems, Accessibility
Dry Floodproof experience and training
Engineers
Structure loads, building systems
Dry Floodproof Barrier Manufacturer
Design and manufacture
Experience, Reliability
Professional team services
Design library
Construction specialist
Installation and test
Building operations
Storage, maintenance and deployment
Reliability
Training
Insurance expert
Advisor on insurance risk
Flood expertise
Flood Team Best Practices
Regional expertise
Deep team cooperation
Flood Panel professional training program
Professional and product certification
Exclusive national expert resource core
Professional and individual independence and integrity

23. 1. The area below the BFE can be used for:
Pop Quiz
1. The area below the BFE can be used for:
Parking
Access
Storage
All of the above

24. Pop Quiz
2. Dry flood proofing does not require any special certification in order to have the method be accepted by the insurance company.
True
False

25. Pop Quiz
3. Probability of experiencing 100-year flood in 30 years is:
10%
26%
51%
63%

26. Pop Quiz
4. Freeboard should be added to the flood protection elevation when:
Flood maps are very dated
Flood elevations are more than 10 ft.
Elevation of the existing building is chosen as the mitigation measure
Always

27. Contacts & Questions: Tom Osborne, PE
President / Engineering
Office:
Address: Flood Panel 5500 Military Trail # Jupiter, FL Telephone: (Toll Free) (Phone) (Fax)

28. Questions