1. Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council
BSPS Annual Conference 2008 Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning
Housing Tenure Change in Scotland A comparison between and
Jan Freeke
Glasgow City Council

2. Housing tenure change in Scotland
Reason for Interest:
Application of cohort component method to forecast social rented housing demand in Glasgow showed significant differences between rates of change before and after 2001.
Therefore a need to investigate housing tenure change in Scotland.

3. Cohort Component Method

4. Housing tenure change in Scotland
Two central questions:
How different are the rates of change before and after 2001?
What are the components of this change?
Data Sources:
1991 Census and 2001 Census for changes
Scottish Household Survey for changes
Scottish Longitudinal Study for components of change
This presentation: focus on social rented sector in Scotland
Three aspects:
Changes in population by age
Changes in population (age 16-74) by economic status
Changes in households by type

15. Housing tenure change in Scotland
Conclusions:
Decline in social rented housing is only partly due to tenure shift
Decline is also influenced by natural change (age cohorts) and migration
Most important differences as compared with :
Reduced annual loss for younger people
Reduced annual reduction for employed people
Reduced annual reduction for larger households
There are indications that some of these changes are due to factors other than tenure shift

16. Housing tenure change in Scotland
Methodological Comments:
Tenure change tends to be measured in terms of households by tenure. It would be beneficial to also measure change in terms of population, and their characteristics.
Scottish Longitudinal Study data allow changes to be broken down by component, which contributes to a better understanding of recent tenure change.
A better understanding of recent tenure change will assist in the projection of future tenure change, both in terms of numbers and composition of households and population by tenure.