1. Applied Physics Laboratory
MURI Presentation
David Jones
May 21, 2002
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

2. Applied Physics Laboratory
Overview
The Navy forecaster environment
TAF Information
TAF Workflow Model
Preliminary Conclusions
Visualization improvements
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

3. Applied Physics Laboratory
The Work Conditions
The forecaster desk
Limited space
Multiple monitors and data sources
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

4. Forecaster Interactions
Customer service
Interruptions
Multiple tasks
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

5. Applied Physics Laboratory
Forecaster Support
The AG observer
Helps anchor the model predictions
Forecaster backup
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

6. Creating a TAF: Info Used
Product
Source
MM5 Numerical Model
UW Atmos web site
GOES West
TAF and METARS
AFWIN
NOGAPS (altim settings)
JMV
Local observations
Observer & ASOS
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

7. Applied Physics Laboratory
Time with Information
Info Sources
Time (sec)
% Total
Wordpad
541
32.5
MM5
472
28.3
NOGAPS (altim settings)
370
22.2
Satellite
126
7.6
TAFS & METARS
109
6.6
Observer 45
2.7
ASOS 2
0.1
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

8. Applied Physics Laboratory
MM5 Breakdown
MM5 Product
Time (sec)
% Total
12 km domain, 3 hour precipitation
218
46.2
36 km domain, SLP, 10m winds, 925 mb temp
137
29.0
4 km domain, SLP, 10m winds, 925 mb temp
117
24.8
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

9. A TAF Workflow Model Review Satellite Review Num. Pred. SPIN-UP
Check model initialization
against satellite & obs
Uncertainty
Review local TAFS
Confirm
Check specific
model fields
Decisions
Write TAF parameters
Submit TAF
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

10. Preliminary Conclusions
Heavy reliance on UW MM5 web site
Small portion is used most: loops
EFS not used, yet
Verification of past forecasts not done
Concern with model initialization vs. sat & obs
Tools at hand does not make this easy
Biggest uncertainty for the TAF is whether to stick with model or offset it
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

11. Visualization Improvements
What we can’t do
Use the “New Paradigm” as a framework for vis. tools
Support where uncertainty is largest
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory

13. Applied Physics Laboratory
Future Work
Analysis of current tapes
More CTA
NWS
Additional Navy forecast center
Based on CTA develop a prototype interface that includes the verification system & EFS
Test of multi-monitors & curved screen (Psych, APL & MS)
11/14/2018
Applied Physics Laboratory