1. Crystal Ball
Richard Norris

2. Creation Invented by Decisioneering Based in Denver, 1986
Develop packages for companies to better assess risk
In 2000, became international;
London / Frankfurt, Germany

3. Crystal Ball History Created in 1986 - 1st project of Decisioneering
1998, launched Crystal Ball Pro
Won: 1998 Risk and Insurance Magazine Software Award
1999, created Open Crystal Ball
- Platform independent version

4. Facets of American Industry
Oil and gas
Financial Services
Aerospace
Transportation
Environmental Waste Assessment
Portfolio Planning
Sales Forecasting
Pharmaceuticals

5. Oil & Gas BP, Chevron, Shell Analysis of oil reserves Petroleum Price
Amount of oil to extract
Number of oil wells

6. Pharmaceuticals Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Merck
Prospective new product effectiveness
NPV / IRR
Net Present Value / Internal Rate of Return
New product lines

7. Environmental Woodward Clyde, Golder Associates, EPA
Management nuclear waste storage
Groundwater contamination
Cleanup analysis
Sensitivity**

8. Monte Carlo……. “casino?!”
Random Number Utilizer!!!!
Flexible, easily modified
Convergence rate of error~ (1/√(N))
N = number of random number iterations

9. Quotes
"I found the software very versatile - whether developing patient treatment models or performing cost analyses." -- Dr. Brian Murphy, Director, Clinical Studies Program, St. Vincents Hospital and Medical Center 
"Crystal Ball is a very flexible tool that allows very quick stochastic analysis. It allows for transparency and inclusion of uncertainty into any analysis." -- Jack Kloeber, Director, Portfolio Management, J&J 
"Doing a business case analysis without Crystal Ball is like driving with your lights off at night." -- Chad Lander, Senior Financial Analyst, Sprint

10. References
Intro O.R. textbook
Wikipedia.org