1. John McCartney CVEN 5454 Spring 2003
Relationship between Streamflow and Large-Scale Climate Indicators for: The San Juan River at Bluff Utah
John McCartney
CVEN 5454
Spring 2003

2. Topography of San Juan / Escalante Region

3. Annual Streamflow Cycle
For data ranging from 1929 to 2001

4. Monthly Streamflow PDFs

5. Relationship between Streamflow and Large-scale Climate Indices
Mutual Information = 0.107
r = 0.241
r = 0.372

6. Relationship between Streamflow and Large-scale Climate Indices

7. Streamflow Relative to Different Phases in the Climate Signal
El Nino: winter ENSO > 0.25
Neutral: < winter ENSO < 0.25
El Nina: winter Enso < -0.25
I chose this so that there were sufficient numbers of corresponding streamflows in each category

8. Streamflow Relative to Different Phases in the Climate Signal

9. Probabilistic Forecast of Streamflow Levels
P(High ENSO) = 0.25
P(Neutral ENSO) = 0.35
P(Low ENSO) = 0.4
Upper flow threshold = 6500 cfs
Lower flow threshold = 3000 cfs
Conditional Matrix:
P(High Flow) =
P(Neutral Flow) =
P(Low Flow) =

10. Simulated Average Spring Streamflow Scenario from Probabilistic Forecast

11. PDF Analysis of 100-yr flood
~5300 cfs

12. Extreme Distribution/LOCFIT Analysis of 100-yr Flood
~5300

13. AR(1) Parametric Time Series Analysis of Monthly Streamflow Statistics

14. k-Nearest-Neighbor Nonparametric Time Series Analysis of Monthly Streamflow

15. Questions?