1. NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Renewables Competitive by 2020
Oxford Analytica, International: Renewables Will Compete by 2020, February 28, 2018

2. Overview
Studies show that onshore wind and utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) cell technology are now the cheapest form of electricity generation in many regions.
In many cases, renewable expansion is coming at the expense of fossil fuels and nuclear power.
Main impacts
Rising renewable capacity will displace fossil fuel power in oil and gas producing countries, strengthening their ability to export
Renewables will displace fossil fuel demand in oil and gas importing countries, reducing pollution and increasing consumer choice
Solutions will emerge to improve the reliability of renewables, but initially it will boost gas-fired power

3. Main Findings I
Main findings of study undertaken by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
The report based on projects
Built and under construction as well as
Tender and action data for projects awarded but unbuilt
Main findings
Estimates that G20 countries can generate fossil fuel power at a cost of between dollars per kilowatt-hour (kWh)
Renewables in some cases have already undercut this range

4. Main Findings II Main Findings (contd.)
Renewable technologies are the cheapest option in in areas with plentiful renewable resources
Large-scale hydroelectric infrastructure
High consistent wind speeds and
Strong solar irradiation
Does not mean renewables are always the best choice in all regions
Fossil fuels remain more reliable in terms of
Baseload power and
The ability to dispatch controllable power

5. Main Findings III Report highlights that
Cost of solar PV for new projects commissioned in 2017 fell to dollars per kWh
Recent actions in Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, Mexico, and Morocco resulted in wind power projects as low as 0.03 dollars per kWh
Reductions in renewable costs are far from exhausted with gains ahead from larger wind turbines and increased solar cell efficiency

6. Cost of Electricity

7. Renewable Energy by Region

8. Trends in Renewable Energy

9. Regional Developments I
Changes in different regions
Middle East
Solar capacity both PV and Concentrated Solar Power with storage will rise sharply in next two years as tender awards are completed and new tenders issued
Additional electricity supply, particularly in Saudi Arabia will displace fuel oil, increasing capacity to export oil
North Africa
Renewables will displace natural gas as much as oil Increasing ability of gas producing countries to export
Main beneficiaries Egypt, Algeria and Libya (to a lesser extent due to internal security problems
Investment in gas production will determine gas and LNG exports, but rising renewable power generation will free up gas for export

10. Regional Developments II
Latin America
Expansion of renewables will reduce the
Demand for gas and
Need for additional imports when hydro reservoir levels are low
Shale gas is being developed in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region but development could disappoint
Brazil’s pre-salt is producing associated gas with its oil output
Mexican imports of US shale gas are increasing
As a result, Latin America’s role as an LNG importer is being reversed

11. Implementation Issues I
Power dispatch
Onshore wind and utility scale solar are the cheapest forms of power generation
Issues over their viability will increase as their market share grows
Particularly the case in countries wishing to reduce their dependence on both nuclear power and coal-fired generation including
Germany and to a lesser extent
France and
U.K.

12. Implementation Issues II
Storage capacity
Storage capacity is likely to become increasingly viable and used
One project – construction of 100 megawatts of battery capacity in South East Australia by Tesla to smooth variable wind output
Has lowered demand for gas in the region
Lithium-ion battery storage expected to see substantial cost declines as large-scale factories come online, primarily to supply electric vehicles

13. Implementation Issues III
Reliability
Need for reliable baseload power should encourage investment in offshore wind – more consistent than onshore
Costs of offshore have fallen but remains almost completely unused outside of northwest Europe
Starting to be deployed on large scale in China

14. Implementation Issues IV
CSP with storage
Costs of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) with storage are falling.
CSP plants incorporate storage through the heating of a liquid medium by the sun
The captured energy is gradually released to generate reliable baseload power, rather than peaking and declining with the sun
CSP demands a high level of irradiation
Developers are looking at prospects for exporting CSP-generated power from the Saharan desert to Europe
Of interest because of falling technology costs and retirement of coal and nuclear plants in Europe