1. Vulnerability of water and electricity supply towards natural hazards
Claudia Bach, UNU-EHS on behalf of GIZ
ekDRM,

2. KIBEX project Critical infrastructures and civil protection
Climate change related extreme weather events

3. Concept of vulnerability
“the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.” (UN/ISDR 2009)
f (vulnerability) = Exposure x Susceptibility x Coping Capacity
(see e.g. Birkmann 2006)

4. Critical infrastructures
“Critical infrastructures (CI) are organizational and physical structures and facilities of such vital importance to a nation’s society and economy that their failure or degradation would result in sustained supply shortages, significant disruption of public safety and security, or other dramatic consequences.” (Federal MOI, 2009)  important topic for Federal MOI
Technical infrastructure:
Water supply
Electricity
Waste water management
Transport IT
Socioeconomic service infrastructure
Health and nutrition
Disaster reduction and emergency services
Parliament, jurisdiction, public administration
Finance and insurance
Media and cultural heritage

5. Vulnerability of societies toward critical infrastructure system failures
Vulnerability I
Critical Infrastructure
(physical assessment of components)
Vulnerability II a
Root causes and interconnectedness with other infrastructures
Vulnerability II b
Population
(Dependency and Coping Mechanisms)

6. Vulnerability of critical infrastructure (components)
Source: Krings (2010)
Exemplary components of water supply systems:
Wells
Water works
Pumping station
Blending stations
Information on processes

7. Assessment for components is especially relevant for natural hazards…
… with limited/ clearly assessable geographical extension
… that physically destroy components (e.g. by the intrusion of water)
e.g. flooding, flash floods
For heat waves/ multi-hazard approaches (+ dry spells), the physical destruction of infrastructure components does not play a major role
Instead, several processes have to be considered

9. Vulnerability factors of critical infrastructures for heat waves
Demographic changes, urbanization (long-term changes in demand and supply)
Peak demand during heat waves (short-term changes in demand and supply)
Overall availability of (drinking) water
Interrelations of critical infrastructure sectors (e.g. water and electricity)

10. Interrelation of critical infrastructures
Production of electricity depends on water
for hydro-electric power plants
for cooling power plants (e.g. coal and nuclear)
in rivers for shipping materials such as coal for energy production
Electricity shortfalls can be caused by dry spells
nuclear and coal-fired power stations in Germany in 2003 had a reduced output by between – 15 % to – 100 %
(BfG 2006; Lönker 2003)
Shortfalls can be accompanied by an increase in demand

11. Interrelation of critical infrastructures
Failures in the electricity supply system can cause the malfunction of drinking water supply
e.g. pumping stations and water works depend on electricity supply
A shortfall furthermore has influence on critical (disaster risk management) infrastructures such as telecommunications etc.

12. Vulnerability of the population toward malfunction of infrastructures
Exposure towards malfunction
Suceptibility – e.g.:
High level of supply leading to a lack of provisions
Inability/ lack of knowlegde to deal with a shortfall
Socio-demographic factors such as age, illness etc.
Lack of generators (e.g. elderly homes, small hospitals/ emergency facilities, components for drinking water supply etc.)

13. Coping capacity – e.g.:
Experience with shortfalls  improved provision and knowlegde
Socio-demographic factors
Availability of external/ independent electricity supply facilities

14. Transferability
Method is being developed for German/ European infrastructure systems with the following preconditions
Overall availability of water resources
A high level of access to the infrastructure services.
Infrastructure services meet the demand and have a very low probability of failure.
Major parts of the supplied population are not aware of the probability of a major failure of infrastructure systems and cascading effects and are hardly prepared. They are thus vulnerable to failures in supply.
Concept has to be adapted for regions with other preconditions

15. Conclusion and next steps
Development of indicators for the vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure systems, e.g. level of interrelatedness, dependency of the electricity sector on water etc.
The possible shortfall of electricity (by different sorts of hazards) has to be taken into accoutn for DRM
Further discussion of the transferability

16. Thank you for your attention!
Claudia Bach
Research Associate
United Nations University – Institute for
Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Contact Details:
Hermann - Ehlers – Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Tel.: