1. REPORT BY THE CHAIR OF THE OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP ON THE DATA-PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM
Ken Mylne

2. OPAG(DPFS) Structure

3. New Manual on GDPFS (WMO-No. 485)
Manual provides technical regulations for all operational DPFS systems operated by WMO Members and defines the network of GDPFS Centres
WMCs, RSMCs, GPCs,RCCs, ...
New Manual has been submitted to Members for review and is now ready for consideration by CBS-16 – see CBS-16/Docs 3.6(1 to 7)
Introduces Quality Management for GDPFS Centres – Regular audit of centre compliance
Defines new specifications for GDPFS Centres:
Re-mapping of existing centres
New definitions to reflect the growing scope of GDPFS
Revised

4. Future Seamless GDPFS
WWOSC in 2014 defined seamless to span:
Timescales from minutes to years
Hazards – weather, hydrology, oceans, composition, space weather...
Impact – society, risk  decisions
VISION FOR Seamless GDPFS Approved BY EC-68 and Resolution 11 (Cg-17)
GDPFS will be effective ... Monitoring/prediction system to enable... better-informed decisions.
GDPFS will facilitate provision of impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings through partnership.
GDPFS will do so through sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data...
EC set up a steering group to lead the development of the Future Seamless GDPFS – Met Feb & Nov 2016
Cross-Commissions and RAs representing the operational activities across WMO

5. ET-OWFPS Operational Weather Forecast Process and Support
Guidelines on:
Nowcasting Technique – tabled for approval at CBS-16
High Resolution NWP
Verification:
New standards for surface verification of Global Models – included in new Manual
Surface verification (2m Temp and 10m Windspeed) for EPS
Supported by Lead Centre for Deterministic Verification

6. IPET-OPSLS Operational Prediction from Sub-seasonal to Longer time scale
Guides development of Long-Range Forecasting as part of CSIS of the GFCS
Operational seasonal 1-3 months
Verification and multi-model ensemble forecasts (and hindcasts) through LC-LRFMME
Developing Guidelines on generation of regional seasonal outlooks
Development of recommendation for the creation of a Lead Centre for Near-Term Climate Prediction
Prediction up to several years ahead combining effects of climate change and initial state
Maybe more skilful for decision-making than seasonal

7. ET-ERA Environmental Emergency Response Activities
Nuclear
10 RSMCs provide global coverage
Procedures tested regularly
Collaboration with IAEA, CTBTO, ICAO, WHO – new agreements
Developing Transfer Coefficient Matrix method – will allow members to assess impact of source term
Non-nuclear
New procedures tested & demonstrated
Included in new Manual for approval at CBS-16

8. WMO/TN-No. 170 Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of Siting and Operation Nuclear Power Plants
Cg XVI requested update
Current version dated 1985 – needs updating!
Needs consistency with IAEA documents
Document has been updated and is ready for approval

9. SG-SWFDP Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
Major success story for GDPFS
Cascading Forecasting Process
Capacity Building support
Rapid growth in new projects
Pink planned 1-2 years
Orange planned 3-5 years
Existing projects moving to operations
Seamless collaboration:
RCCs for long-range cascading
Flood Forecast Guidance
Coastal Inundation FDP
WWRP Research projects
Consolidating guidance into one Guidebook
Growth - major challenge to resources
Training support
Secretariat
GDPFS Centres

10. IPT-SWISS Space Weather Information Services System
Space Weather is new component of operational services
Cg-17 adopted Res 38 on 4-year plan for Space Weather activities
Collaboration with CAeM
Vulnerability for aviation, esp polar routes
Obs requirements in OSCAR – WIGOS
CBS-MG agreed that IPT-SWISS should report through OPAG(DPFS)
Resource requirements

11. Cooperation with other Programmes
Many already mentioned
WWRP and WCRP on transitioning research to operations – incl SWFDP demonstrations
HIW, PPP, S2S etc
CAeM on Space Weather and EER Dispersion
IAEA on TN 170 and EER
WIGOS on monitoring quality of observations
PWS on Service Delivery, SWFDP and Impact-Based Forecasts and Risk-Based Warnings
Big Data

12. Structure of DPFS – first step to seamless

13. Thank you
Merci