1. Shared, Electric, & Autonomous Vehicles – What it means for the grid
E2 Engage delta county
Garrett Fitzgerald| Sept 29th, 2017| Paonia, CO
Transforming global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future.

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3. Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car?
1913: where’s the last horse? ?

4. Policy and Economics are shifting the market
Gas car bans announced
EV models announced
Norway: 2025
India:  2030
Britain: 2040
France: 2040
Netherlands: 2040
Germany: "I cannot name an exact year yet, but the approach is right” - Angela Merkle
China: Work has begun on a timetable, according to China's vice minister of industry, Xin Guobin.
Ford plans to ship 13 EV models in the next five years.
Volkswagen has announced that it intends to launch 30 models of EVs over the next nine years.
Volvo projects that all of its new models will include electric drive by 2019
BMW and Mercedes-Benz expect EVs to be 15–25% of their sales by 2025.
Porsche announced that it now thinks electric models will be half of its production by 2030.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance anticipates that by 2020, there will be 39 models of PHEVs and 44 models of EVs available in North America

5. U.S. eV market on the cusp of rapid growth
Three OEMs have dominated the U.S. EV market in the past; In 2020 all major OEMS will offer a range of BEV options.
You are here
Next generation long-range, mid-class, EVs (Tesla 3, Chevy Bolt) address the mass market
Cost parity of EV/ICE exists today for high mileage vehicles and is expected to be achieved for average mileage as soon as
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

6. Grid impacts are small today; Benefits (or challenges) will be big Soon
System level load profile on the California grid: 2015
2025
Time of Day
2025
Uncontrolled: 11% increase in peak demand
IN 2025 EVs could increase kWh sales by up to 13% but Uncontrolled charging could increase peak demand by 11%.
However, controlled charging could increase system load factors by up to 6 percentage points (i.e t in CAISO). Low load factors cost utilites and rate payers money
Controlled: 9% increase in system load factor OR
Spend Money
Save Money

7. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles will disrupt the market further

8. Autonomous Vehicles will enable widespread Transportation as a service
Transportation-as-a-Service is a shift away from personally owned modes of transportation and towards mobility solutions that are consumed as a service.
Combining transportation services from public and private transportation
Single account payment
Pay per trip or a monthly fee
Mobility of goods and people
Uber or, someone like them, will offer autonomous shared vehicle services. Widespread adoption of such services would reduce the amount of vehicles needed to accomplish the same amount of transportation by between 75% and 90%.

9. Automated conductive charging

10. Stationary wireless charging
WiTricity’s DRIVE series of wireless EV charging pads come in 3.7 kilowatts, 7.7 kilowatts and 11 kilowatts -- typical sizes for consumer vehicles. The company also plans to scale to 22 kilowatts and higher to power bigger vehicles like electric buses

11. Wireless charging in motion

12. “I believe the auto industry will change more in the next five to 10 years than it has in the last 50, and this gives us the opportunity to make cars more capable, more sustainable and more exciting than ever before.” ”
— General Motors CEO Mary Barra
Timeline
Today
TI - energy and water efficient plant was 30% cheaper to build, so stayed in the U.S. saving 1,000 U.S. jobs
Mining project for Anglo American not only saved energy but improved health and recoveries and paid back in a few years. In 2015, we created Sunshine for Mines, bringing benign renewable energy to remote mines more cheaply and reliably than remote fuel logistics.
2020
202?
20??
AV pilots operating in:
Tempe, AZ
San Francisco, CA
Pittsburgh, PA
Boston, MA
Autonomous Vehicles deployed without drivers in select cities
AVs overtake personal vehicle ownership
Shared, Autonomous, Electric Vehicles provide 90% of mobility

13. Thank you
Garrett Fitzgerald, RMI