1. GDP growth estimates for Europe at 30 days
NTTS Conference, Brussel
16 March 2017
Eurostat – Hans Wouters

2. GDP growth estimates for Europe at 30 days
Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates for EU and EA?
Development work
Quality acceptance criteria
Test estimates
Published GDP t+30 estimates
Communication and information
Conclusions

3. 1. Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates for EU and EA? (1)
Purpose: Assess the feasibility of producing GDP flash estimates at t+30 days for the EA/EU
User needs
Key users – European Commission, ECB
Policy making
Monitoring economic situation
Forecasting
Other users

4. 1. Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates for EU and EA? (2)
Logical next step after introduction GDP t+45 estimates in 2003
Fits in release pattern Principal European Economic Indicators
Releases at 30 – 60 – 90 days

5. 2. Development work Development national estimates
Exchange of estimation practices and problems
How to estimate missing (3rd month) data
Development methodology for EA/EU estimates
Aggregation of national estimates
Special attention for rounding
Preparation of EA/EU test estimates
Development of quality acceptance criteria
Development of a communication plan

6. 3. Quality acceptance criteria (1)
Purpose
Assessment of test estimates
Decision to go 'live' or not
Quality criteria
Unbiased GDP t+30 estimate
Average revision between and ppt
Max 67% revision in the same direction

7. 3. Quality acceptance criteria (2)
Quality criteria (continued)
Limited average absolute revision
Max 0.10 ppt at t+45
Max 0.13 ppt at t+60
Sufficient coverage
70% GDP for 2015 test quarters
Availability communication plan

8. 4a. Test estimates, general
Purpose
To assess expected quality of future GDP t+30 estimates
Test quarters
Real time estimations for 2014Q1-2015Q4
Retrospective estimations for 2012Q1-2013Q4

9. 4b. Test estimates, EU t+30 results (1)

10. 4b. Test estimates, EU t+30 results (2)

11. 4c. Test estimates, EA t+30 results (1)

12. 4c. Test estimates, EA t+30 results

13. 4d. Test estimates, conclusions
Successfully passed all a priori quality criteria
Better than market forecasts at t+30 (tested for real-time quarters 2014Q1 onwards)
But: revisions t+30  t+45 a bit larger than revisions t+45  t+60
Eurostat (and ESS) decided to start publishing GDP t+30 from 2016Q1 onwards

14. 5. Published GDP t+30 estimates

15. 6. Communication and information (1)
Introduction videos in April 2016
Methodological working papers (available on Eurostat website)
Methods and techniques for
national GDP t+30 estimations
Eurostat estimation procedure

16. 6. Communication and information (2)
Article in Eurona journal 1/2016 (available on Eurostat website)
Presentations in meetings and conferences
ESCB Working Group on General Economic Statistics, Febr. '16
IARIW – International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Aug. '16
CIRET – pre-Conference Workshop on Rapid Estimates, Sept. '16
CESS – Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Oct. '16
NTTS – New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics, March '17

17. 7. Conclusions User needs for earlier GDP estimates
Project 'GDP t+30' aimed to assess feasibility of producing GDP flash estimates for the EA/EU at 30 days
The project developed:
Guidance for national GDP flash estimates
Methodology for EA/EU estimation procedure
Test estimates for 2012Q1-2015Q4
Quality acceptance criteria
Test results passed quality acceptance criteria
Eurostat started official publication in April 2016
Published estimates confirm test results

18. GDP growth estimates for Europe at 30 days
NTTS Conference, Brussel
16 March 2017
Eurostat – Hans Wouters