1. Operational Analysis in Dstl
Steve Lea, Chief Scientist
Policy and Capability Studies
LASEORS - 9 Nov 04

2. Dstl Department Structure
Policy & Capability Studies Miles Hunt
Joint Systems Chris Gibson
Systems
Peter Starkey
Naval Systems Neil Stansfield
Land Systems John Hunt
Air Systems Kevin Wagstaff
Information Management Paul James
Technology
Mike Jenden
Missiles & Countermeasures Alistair Feltham
Energetics Simon Sanderson
Sensors Alec McKie
Electronics Ken Brigden
Science
Richard Scott
Environmental Sciences John Richards
Biomedical Sciences Mark Fulop
Detection Alexis Hammer
Physics Sue Holmes
15 November November 2018

3. Linking Research and Analysis
Capability Managers
changes in world circumstance, policy, needs
ADVICE
Integrated research, analysis and assessment
achievable performance and cost
technology breakthroughs, civil technology, ‘blue skies’ research
new operational concepts, scenarios, doctrine
Systems design
Systems analysis
performance and cost goals
experience and lessons identified from in-service assessment
15 November November 2018

4. Policy & Capability Studies Department
Policy formulation
Peacetime management
Capability
planning
Policy
Operational training
Operations
Support to
Operations
Procurement
Force
planning
Manpower and
training
Logistics
WHY ARE WE HERE?
“To support MOD in making the best policy,
procurement and operational decisions”
Equipment acquisition
15 November November 2018
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5. Policy and Capability Studies Department
The Policy and Capability Studies Department undertakes high level operational analysis to support MOD and wider government in its decision making processes.
Main areas of activity are:
support to policy formulation
support to overall force planning
support doctrine development and concepts of operation
support to military capability decisions
support to peacetime management of MOD
support to other Government departments
15 November November 2018
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6. Policy & Capability Studies
Department
Manager
Chief
Scientist
Operations GL GL GL GL GL GL
Co-
ord
Policy and
Strategic
Equipment
Logistics
Analysis
Support to
Planning
Analysis
Capability
Analysis
Experimentation
Operations
Analysis
Analysis
&
Simulation
Programme
Co-
Ord
Policy Assessment
Strategic Effects
Costs
Logistics
Data and OA
Operations
AWC
Resource
Analysis
Model Support
Support
Waddington
Co-
ord
Force Structure
Development
Analysis
Joint BOI
Sustainability
Future Analysis
PJHQ
AWC
Operational Effects
Manning
Methods
Waddington
Analysis
C4/ISTAR
Deployment
Operations
MWC
PPA: Main focus is support to MoD HQ’s Policy Area via their Force Development process, which seeks to: “Evaluate future warfare and technology trends in order to recommend the balance of future military capabilities and force structures that underpins defence policy.”
ECA support the Joint Capabilities Board (JCB). To help shape the MOD’s forward equipment plan (EP) by informing balance of investment decisions between competing defence programmes. EP ~£6B pa and covers development and procurement of new equipment over the next 20 years.
AES: MoD departments on :
development and use of Synthetic Environments to support all phases of equipment acquisition, research and development
training requirements and the design and use of virtual environments for collective training and mission rehearsal
the experimentation programmes, and the use of live trials, virtual environments, and constructive simulations
development and use of modelling and simulation tools for analysis to support MoD policy and acquisition decisions
Concepts/Doctrine
Training
AWC
Historical Analysis
Sea/Air
CBRN/Medical
Northwood
&
Pol-Mil Gaming
Analysis
OAB, HQ
Maritime
Synthetic
Campaign
Environment
AWC
Development
Land Warfare
Information Campaign
Land/Air
High
Wycombe
Techniques
Centre
Support
Analysis
(JFAC)
Graduate Group
Experimentation
Administration Group
15 November November 2018

7. Support to Operations (S2O)
The Work
The aim of the Support to Operations Group is to provide analysis and scientific advice on military trials, exercises and operations
The Group has 75 staff
Over 50 embedded in Headquarters, Warfare Centres
Ready to deploy to theatre with UK forces
Gulf War 1 , Bosnia and Kosovo, Afghanistan, Op Telic
Support to Other Government Departments
Fuel Crisis (Home Office), Foot and Mouth(DEFRA, Cabinet Office), Fire-fighters Strike (Cabinet Office)
15 November November 2018
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8. Support to Operations (S2O)
The Impact
Examples of Recent Iraq Analysis Support (1)
Combat Operations Support
Strategic, Operational and Tactical Wargaming/Course of Action analysis
Casualty profiling/medical analysis
Logistics analysis - ammunition requirements
Review of impact of weather on Combat Operations
Post Combat Support
Continuous Iraqi Attitude Survey (CIAS)
Contacts Analysis
Fuel Analysis
Campaign Measures of Effectiveness
15 November November 2018
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9. Strategic Analysis (SA)
The Work
SA provides support to (evidence-based) development and testing of Policy, Strategy and Plans
Develops and undertakes techniques for adversary analysis
e.g. regime leadership and non-state actor networks
Undertakes Historical Analysis
Analysis of regional security issues
Helps understanding of how socio-technical systems might respond to intervention
Focus on senior decision-makers’ needs (MoD & OGD)
Expand the areas where OA can give useful advice
Adapt the ways in which OA supports decisions
The role of OA is to extract as much meaning as possible from the available objective evidence, so as to help clarify the issues for those who make the decisions. As with other forms of OA, Strategic Analysis does not remove autonomy from decision-makers; it simply provides advice to them.
15 November November 2018
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10. Strategic Analysis - how it does it
Regional risk
assessment
Info Ops planning
& evaluation
Strategy &
Policy development & assessment
Contingency planning support
Evidence-based
policy support
Effects-based Planning
Regime-level
modelling
Analysis of Socio-technical systems
Influence
analysis
Strategic
Assessment Method
(SAM)
roadmapping
Scenario-based
planning
gaming
Pol-Mil
Social network analysis
System
dynamics
Historical
Content &
context analysis
Multi-disciplinary teams
In order to analyse issues and options at the strategic level we need access to a broad range of disciplines, including some that are not commonly found in Dstl.
Experience has shown that buying in this expertise is very inefficient for analysis purposes – we get some very elegant essays, but little that can support OA with out considerable extra work and interpretation. Instead we have recruited into the group people who are specialists in the required disciplines and are also able to operate in an analytical framework and work alongside operational analysts with more traditional backgrounds.
Having these ‘embedded specialists’ gives us the internal capability to apply a much broader, multidisciplinary approach to problem structuring and analysis. It also gives us access to a much richer contact network and allows us to act as an intelligent customer for extramural research and support.
Psychology
Anthropology, Sociology
Operational
Analysis
International
Relations
Political
Science
Management
& Systems Science
Physical Sciences
Philosophy, Law, Ethics, War Studies, Intelligence analysis
Economics
Maths & Stats
15 November November 2018
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11. 15 November November 2018