1. The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast
Presented at MAPPS Meeting
24 July, 2001
Ron Rabin, Lockheed Martin, Stennis Space Center

2. Topics Review Phase I - 10-Year Forecast
Background/Industry Baseline
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Preliminary Interview Results
Request for MAPPS Help
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3. It Is Difficult To Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
Yogi B.
However, ...
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4. The Plan
Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)
Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002)
Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment
Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)
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5. Participants Univ. of AZ NASA Univ. of Utah ASPRS Univ. of Missouri
Lockheed Martin
Space Operations
Space Imaging
Kodak
SPOT
EarthData
PAR
Autometrics
Spencer-Gross
American Forests
RAND
Pictometry
Leading Edge
Geomatics
Eaglescan
Landcare Avn.
Univ. of AZ
Univ. of Utah
Univ. of Missouri
RIT
NASA
ASPRS
NSGIC
MAPPS
NOAA
USGS
H_E_L_P
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6. Remote Sensing Industry
Platforms & Sensors
Data
Collection
Phase I
Data Processing
Support
Elements
Industry
Intermediaries
Hardware
Software
Etc.
Business Segments
VARs
Consultants
Etc.
End-User
Phase II
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7. Forecast Process $ Focus Group Survey Interview Literature Search
Findings
Conclusions $
Time
Forecast $
20%
21%
17%
Focus
Group
Survey
Interview
Literature
Search
ANALYSIS
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8. Phase I Survey Sample Size
* = Excluded Students & Retired
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9. Respondent Profile
* Respondents could answer more than once.
Respondents are predominantly middle/upper management level with a representative mix of technical and non-technical
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10. Respondent Estimates of CRSI Sales (1998-2001, 2005, and 2010)
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11. Estimated CRSI Sales III 1998 to 2010
Baseline Forecast
Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years
Estimated CRSI Sales III 1998 to 2010
AAGR
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12. Percent of Sales By Geospatial Activity & Market Segment
Market Segments
Is this due to marketing practices? Demand? Customer Awareness?
Is there opportunity in the “Lowest % of Sales” market segments?
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13. Most Important Government Missions
Federal level generally has across the
board interest
States appear to be focused more on Natural
Resource Management and Utilities
Only the Federal Government sees
Technology Development as an Important Mission
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14. Most Active RS Markets/Applications/Activities
(Generically grouped)(NOT rank ordered)
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15. Overall Summary and Conclusions
The Remote Sensing Industry will Grow at about 13% Per Year, Reaching about $6B ($CY2000) in Sales by 2010
Companies in the RSI are multi-dimensional
more than one Market Segment;
more than one Business Segment;
more than one Geo-Spatial Activity
Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are:
Mapping/Geography
Environment
Civil Government
National/Global Security
Transportation
Less Active Market Segments (i.e., Utilities, Real Estate, Insurance, Telecommunications, Agriculture, Forestry, Entertainment/media)
may offer a significant opportunity area
Government data distribution policies contribute to a Perception that they may be adversely effecting commercial interests
Slide 49
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16. Overall Summary and Conclusions
Photogrammetry is currently the largest area of geo-spatial activity. However, R&D Investments indicate that a Shift to Remote Sensing may be in process
Most RSI Companies are small and do not invest in R&D
There are about 200K employees in the “Core Companies” of the Commercial Sector of the RSI of which 8.75% (about (17K) are Directly Involved in Geo-Spatial Activities.
Ratio is probably higher in smaller companies than in larger ones
College/University Outputs may Not be Meeting Hiring Requirements of Industry.
At Colleges/Universities offering RS curricula, only About 1% of the Student population is enrolled in RS programs. Support for these programs, therefore, is small
Industry competes with Government for personnel resources
Government and/or private sector support are probably needed
Potential Customers may not be fully aware of products available
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17. Topics Review Phase I - 10-Year Forecast
Background/Industry Baseline
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Preliminary Interview Results
Request for MAPPS Help
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18. Collection and Analysis Objectives
1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER
Academic
Instructor
Student
Commercial
Government
Federal
Regional
State
Local
Tribal
2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS
3. Base-line END-USER NEEDS
Survey,
Interview,
Focus Group
Lit. Search
Analysis
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19. Collection and Analysis Goals
4. Determine Needs-driven REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline (Goal 3)
5. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS as (Goal 4)
6. Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
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20. User Driven Applications Development
1. Insert Existing Technologies
into existing Applications
LIDAR
Radar/SAR/IFSAR
GPS
Upgrade
2. Enrich existing Applications
with Emergent Technologies
Electronic/Wireless Information
Hyperspectral
FOPEN
Modernize
Create
4. Create New RS Systems Applications
Unattended Systems
Systems of Systems
Knowledge Based Decision Aids
3. Create New Technologies for New Applications
Micro-electronics/Power
Multi Sensors Platforms
Bandwidth Increase
Innovate
Applications
Calibration,
Validation,
Verification
Applications
Deployment
Phase II
User Needs
&
Requirements
Analysis
Research
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21. Topics Review Phase I - 10-Year Forecast
Background/Industry Baseline
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Preliminary Interview Results
Request for MAPPS Help
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22. Phase II Interview Results
Preliminary/Interim/Initial/Draft
and all other Weasel Words
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23. Phase II Interview Results
Preliminary/Interim/Initial/Draft
and all other Weasel Words
Completed (4)
Association of State Floodplain Managers - 25th annual Conference (31 interviews)
Geospatial World 2001(13 interviews)
Twenty-First Annual ESRI International User Conference
(13 interviews)
National Association of Counties 2001 Annual Conference
Planned (11)
Interviews Conducted at Major Conferences
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24. Caveats
THIS IS PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF VERY COMPLEX DATA. EXPECT CHANGES
Interviewees are fairly evenly split
Imagery and Photography Users (Floodplain Managers) and GIS Users (Geospatial World and ESRI)
Commercial and Government Users
Most of the Government responses come from Federal, State and Local level (Floodplain Mapping)
Manager to User ratio is about 1:4
Not considered representative of the Academic Sector (3/57)
“Interviewees”, “Respondents” and “Conference Attendees” (and “Potential Customers”) are virtually synonymous
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25. Respondent Profile 57 Interviews Analyzed: 31 Floodplain Managers
13 Geospatial world
13 ESRI
Approximately …
25%-30% Managers
40% in Software use/development
20% in Applications Development
Rest are Systems Analysts, Marketers or Trainers
40% from Mid-Atlantic and Southern states.
20% have purchasing authority
20% are Foreign Nationals working with American firms.
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26. Applications/Areas of Focus
Are the areas of least focus those of biggest opportunity?
In General, The Applications/Areas of Focus most frequently selected by Interviewees parallel the most Active Market Segments in our Phase I Survey
The major exceptions (Utilities and Agriculture) are probably because the Interviewee group has a bias toward Federal, State and Local government interests (Floodplain Managers).
Utilities were also a strong “Mission Activity” at the State Level in the Phase I Survey
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27. Use of Imagery Types
Digital Format is used 3 times more frequently than film. Preference? Trend? Cost?
Imagery collected via Aerial Photography dominates by a 2:1 margin
LIDAR and DOQQ responses are possibly weighted by the size of the Flood Plain Managers group in the sample
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28. Spatial Resolution Use
Higher Spatial Resolutions are used most.
Possibly because the majority of respondents are involved in flood plain mapping - which requires high resolution
Accounting for this bias, it appears that the use of Spatial Resolution is driven by multiple factors, e.g. ...
Using the correct tool for the task at hand
Cost
Availability on the job
Lack of awareness re: tools available …
Not simply the desire for Higher Spatial Resolution
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29. Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics
Geo-Location Accuracy and Spatial Resolution are the most important characteristics
Cost is a highly important characteristic
Data indicates that Users may value Geo-Location Accuracy and Spatial Resolution enough to be less concerned about Cost, in obtaining those characteristics .
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30. RS Data and/or Information Characteristics Needing Improvement
The Characteristics Interviewees indicated needed most to be improved are the same ones that are of previously selected as being of highest importance - Geo-Location Accuracy and Spatial Resolution
May mean they still aren’t satisfied with accuracy and resolution they have to do their job.
Does not necessarily mean that what’s state of the art wouldn’t
satisfy them, if they were aware and/or it was available
Phase I Interviews discovered a lack of Customer awareness re: RS tools available
Interviewees also indicate that Lower Costs, Data File Size and other characteristics could be improved, but these continue
to be secondary to Geo-Location Accuracy and Spatial
Resolution.
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31. Software Improvements Needed
Ease of Use, Data Format and Software Utility Compatibility
are the software improvements Interviewees deemed most needed
As was the case with Data/Information Characteristics,
Cost is a factor - but not necessarily a driver
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32. Interviewee Comments
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33. Interviewee Comments re: Future of the Industry
Increased growth
Real-time applications
Higher Spatial Resolution and improved Geo-Spatial Accuracy
Smaller data file size with the same information integrity
Faster computers
Standardization of classifications
3-D Visualization
Lower cost
Technology will continue to advance especially in Lidar
Maneuverable satellites
Quality control
Satellite data automatically processed
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34. Initial Observations (Seeds of Conclusions)
Data/Information derived from Aerial Platform collection is used more than twice as frequently as from Satellites*
Phase II results to date, when coupled with Phase I findings regarding the Satellite and Aerial Imagery markets, raise an interesting issue.
While the Satellite Market is growing, the Aerial Market remains robust and growing as well.
Perhaps the total future market is larger than early and/or current forecasts predict.
Ergo, the Satellite and Aerial Imagery Markets may not be competing and mutually exclusive, but rather complementary and mutually supporting
About 20% of Interviewees (Conference attendees) have authority to purchase RS data, information and/or software (However, some Users can influence purchases)
* Also a finding in Phase I Analysis
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35. Initial Observations (Seeds of Conclusions)
The data collected to date says that, in fact, user groups at these Conferences tend to be fairly well clustered around Conference themes.
Corollary: The best way to select Conferences for “marketing” is probably by theme; not by size
When completed, the Interview data will probably present a fairly representative sample of Conference Attendees in general
Cost is important, but does not seem to be the driving Characteristic in terms of desired of data/information/software products. Based on this data, highly valued information (e.g. Geospatial Accuracy and Spatial Resolution) can be used to overcome Cost barriers
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36. Topics Review Phase I - 10-Year Forecast
Background/Industry Baseline
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Preliminary Interview Results
Request for MAPPS Help
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37. Help Collect Survey Responses
The Phase II Survey is aimed at getting sharper insight into the needs of users of remote sensing data, information and software …
Who they are
What they use to do their job
What they need to do their job better
Results (which MAPPSS will receive) will be useful in ...
Business development
Strategic/operational planning
R&D investment decisions
Better customer service
Developing better competitive posture
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38. Survey Plan Set Phase II Goals and Objectives Developed Questions
“Culturized” (Commercial, Academia, Government) (ASPRS, MAPPS, NASA, NSGIC)
Develop the Survey (electronic format)
Pre-test Survey (23 July-6 Aug)
Revise Survey (7-17 Aug)
Administer the Survey (20 Aug-12 Oct)
Analyze results: Interviews, Focus Groups, Surveys, Literature Search (21 Aug-20 Apr 2002)
Report
Preliminary. NSGIC 7-12 Sept. and MAPPS/ASPRS 31 Oct-2 Nov
Final. ASPRS Apr 2002
Phase II Project Plan
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39. MAPPS Phase II Role H-E-L-P
Participate in the entire effort to the extent you desire.
Contact: Clark Nelson, SPOT, or, Ron Rabin, LMSO,
Act as a Survey Distributor (along with ASPRS, NSGIC and some Private Companies)
Survey is completely anonymous and voluntary .
Results come directly back to Stennis for analysis. You will see results of analysis, not each response
If you provide mailing list ( or postal) they will be treated as proprietary
We will get the Survey to you via MAPPS. Check it out. Fill it out.
If you think it reasonable and that the information will be useful in developing your business, contact your customers and ask them to complete the survey
Participants
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40. Help With Survey Distribution
ELECTRONICALLY
Volunteer
Receive Survey URL via internet from MAPPS for your inspection/approval
If you elect to continue ...
Post Survey URL to your web site and ask your customers to complete or
Forward Survey URL to your customer via and ask your customers to complete
Provide addresses to NASA (will be treated as “Proprietary”)
URL will return surveys to NASA
Assist with completion rate reminders
PAPER
Volunteer
Receive Survey via internet from MAPPS or via mail for your inspection/approval
If you elect to continue ...
Provide mailing addresses list to MAPPS or directly to NASA via internet or US mail (will be treated as “Proprietary”)
NASA will mail out Survey and receive results from Respondents
Assist with completion rate reminders
Assumption will be that all potential respondents are user-managers. Survey will be tailored accordingly
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41. Participate in Roundtable Discussion
User Areas/Applications of highest interest/most demand
Remote Sensing (RS) Product Awareness (What’s available; What’s needed vs What’s asked for)
Currently, what RS product characteristics are in highest demand? (high resolution, low cost, area coverage, etc)
What do you see as the future direction for Remote sensing Products? (“hardcopy” vs software generated, e-delivered, etc) Technologies? (Digital, hyperspectral SAR/IFSAR, LIDAR, etc)
What are the barriers to market growth? How can they be overcome?
If you could fix one problem in the RS Industry, what would it be?
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42. It Ain’t Over Until It’s Over QUESTIONS?
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