1. Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education
Hiroshima, November 6, 2006
Marc Vermeulen
TiasNimbas
IVA Policy Research and Consultancy

3. Presentation Thinking about the future and uncertainty
Deregulation and consequences
A Stakeholder perspective

4. Dealing with unpredictables
Uncertainty
React
Influence

5. Dealing with unpredictables
anticipate
Uncertainty
React
Influence
Quality of analysis
Defines strategic capacity
Role modeling

6. Which trends ?

7. Global + Local= GloCal
Phenomena
System and tradition
Trend

8. Assignment I
Please write down 10 important developments influencing Japanese schools
Rank them in the grid predict vs dynamics
Conclusions?

9. Dynamics versus prediction
Stable
Highly dynamic
Unpredictable
Gender specific
educational choices
Climate change
Youth cultures and consumer behavior
Predictable
Changes in educational system
Urbanization
Aging

10. OECD scenarios 2001 STATUS QUO Bureaucratic School Systems
Teacher exodus 'meltdown'
RE-SCHOOLING
Schools as Core Social Centres
Schools as Focused Learning Organisations
DE-SCHOOLING
Learning Networks and the Network Society
Extending the Market Model

11. Thinking scenarios Time Present scenario a scenario b scenario c
scenario d
Analyses:
Path dependency
early-warning

15. if man defines a situation as real, it will be real in its consequences (thomastheorema)

16. Stakeholders analyses
influence
interest - importance
perception
evaluation
stakeholder
high/low
shared
friends?

17. Try to commit them actively
Friends or enemies
High influence
Low influence
High interest
Allies:
Try to commit them actively
Audience :applause pu
Low interest
Possible enemies
Try not to upset them
No energy