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Potential Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Water Quality in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University Ames, IA USA Project collaborators: Manoj Jha, Zaitao Pan, Roy Gu Iowa-Minnesota Drainage Research Forum 27 November 2007
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Outline Domain and hydrological model (SWAT)
Calibration and validation Observations -> stream flow NNR -> RCM -> SWAT-> stream flow GCM -> RCM -> SWAT-> stream flow GHG -> GCM -> RCM -> SWAT -> stream flow Stream flow vs. precipitation For details see: Jha, M., Z. Pan, E. S. Takle, and R. Gu, 2003: Impacts of climate change on stream flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research.
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Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins
Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Approximately one observing station per sub-basin model grid point
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Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model (Arnold et al,1998) Daily time steps Assesses impacts of climate and management on yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals Physically based, including hydrology, soil temperature, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides and land management
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SWAT Output with Various Sources
of Climate Input
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Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Calibration of SWAT: Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
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Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Calibration of SWAT: Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
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Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT: Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
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Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT: Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
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RegCM2 Simulation Domain
Red = global model grid point Green/blue = regional model grid points
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Annual Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT
Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
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Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
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Seasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT
Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
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Hydrological component comparison
between RegCM2 and SWAT RegCM2 SWAT Evapotranspiration 588 528 Surface runoff 151 166 Snowmelt 256 240 Note: All values are in mm per year averaged for in NNR run.
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SWAT Output with Various Sources
of Climate Input
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Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2
Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Errors in Simulated Stream Flow
and Climate Change Comparisons Evaluate SWAT 1 vs. Measured SWAT error SWAT 2 vs. SWAT 1 RCM error SWAT 3 vs. SWAT 2 GCM error SWAT 3 vs. SWAT 1 GCM-RCM error SWAT 2 vs. Measured RCM-SWAT error SWAT 3 vs. Measured GCM-RCM-SWAT error SWAT 4 vs. SWAT 3 Climate change
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Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under
Climate Change with Various Model Biases
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Hydrologic Budget Components
Simulated by SWAT under Different Climates Hydrologic budget components Calibration ( ) Validation ( ) NNR CTL (around 1990s) SNR (around 2040s) % Change (SNR-CTL) Precipitation 856 846 831 898 1082 21 Snowfall 169 103 237 249 294 18 Snowmelt 168 99 230 245 291 19 Surface runoff 151 128 178 268 51 GW recharge 154 160 134 179 255 43 Total water yield 273 257 253 321 481 50 Potential ET 947 977 799 787 778 -1 Actual ET 547 541 528 539 566 5 All units are mm Yield is sum of surface runoff, lateral flow, and groundwater flow
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Relation of Runoff to Precipitation
for Various Climates
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Stream Flow vs. Precipitation
Regression Analysis: Stream Flow vs. Precipitation
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Water Quality (Results from GCM Study)
Fugitive nitrates and sediment from the landscape are both carried by overland flow related to runoff The dominant pathway for nitrate loss is through leaching to groundwater and then via baseflow or tile drains (Randall, 2001). Results show a substantial decrease in runoff in the future climate but increase in baseflow, although with less agreement among models.
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Water Quality (Results from GCM Study)
Both sediment and nitrate loading of streams would decrease due to decreased runoff but nitrate leaching might increase. Although water quality might improve due to reduced sediment, the loading due to nitrates is less clear but might increase.
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Summary RCM provides meteorological detail needed by SWAT to resolve sub-basin variability of importance to streamflow There is strong suggestion that climate change introduces changes of magnitudes larger than variation introduced by the modeling process Relationship of streamflow to precipitation might change in future scenario climates More research is needed to assess impact on water quality
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