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Management Breakout: DOE Budget Summary Vincent Riot LSST Camera Interim Project Manager LSST Commissioning Plan Review January 24-26, 2017.

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Presentation on theme: "Management Breakout: DOE Budget Summary Vincent Riot LSST Camera Interim Project Manager LSST Commissioning Plan Review January 24-26, 2017."— Presentation transcript:

1 Management Breakout: DOE Budget Summary Vincent Riot LSST Camera Interim Project Manager LSST Commissioning Plan Review January 24-26, 2017

2 Commissioning Focused View of LSST
Director Deputy Director Project Science Team Project Manager Project Scientist Business Administration Tucson/Chile Safety Team Systems Engineering Systems Scientist SE Manager DOE Supported Effort Science Verification Team Core Commissioning Team Technical Coordination Team System Verification Team Project Scientist DM AIV Lead Data Management Commissioning is The Project Priority Technical Coordination team has direct access to subsystem teams Subsystems continue development (DM) or focus on Maintenance (T&S) Project Manager resolves resource & priority conflicts Camera AIV Lead Camera T&S AIV Lead Telescope & Site and others… Subsystem Teams

3 Camera Personnel management through SLAC as a pool of camera resources (matrixed system)
Chief Rsch. Officer Sci. and Tech. Advisor Chief Tech. Officer Project Management Assurance Group SLAC Laboratory Director SLAC Deputy Director LSST Director LSST System Engineering and Commissioning SE manager System Scientist LSSTCam System Engineering Group LSSTCam Project Scientist LSSTCam Project Manager LSSTCam Deputy Project Manager LSSTCam Administration Group Commissioning Technical Coordination team DM AIV Lead Camera AIV Lead T&S AIV Lead Others … LSSTCam ES&H and QA Optics Sub-system Sensor Sub-system Cryostat Sub-system Science Raft Sub-system Auxiliary Electronics sub-system Data Acquisition Sub-system Corner Raft Sub-system Integration and test Camera Body&Shutter Sub-system Camera Control Sub-system 3

4 SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory:
A broad-based collaboration of institutions is planned to support commissioning of the camera under DOE Support SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory: Overall project management, refrigeration system, DAQ, Control system, ComCam Brookhaven National Laboratory: ComCam, Sensors and Raft assemblies Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: Optics Institut National de Physique Nucleaire and et de Physique des Particules (IN2P3-Collection of multiple labs) University-based instrumentation groups: Harvard University – science, sensors & electronics U. of Illinois – controls, software UC Santa Cruz – science 4

5 Key Personnel brings extensive experience to commissioning from the construction phase of the project Steven Kahn (Project Director) Experimental astrophysicist US Principal Investigator for Reflection Grating Spectrometer on ESA’s XMM-Newton Mission Previous ALD for PPA at SLAC LSST MREFC/MIE project director Steve Ritz (Scientist) LSST Camera MIE project scientist Christopher Stubbs (Scientist) LSST Camera MIE science raft sub-system manager Martin Nordby (Systems Engineering) Mechanical Engineer/Project Management Chief Mechanical Engineer on GLAST Subsystem Manager on PEP-II J Langton (Cryostat/Refrigeration) Mechanical Engineer Tony Johnson (Control System) Physicist/software specialist Camera control system architect LSST Camera Data handling coordinating on GLAST SLAC computing coordinator for EXO-200 SLD offline computing scientist Michael Huffer (DAQ) High energy physicist/ DAQ specialist Deputy Project Lead SLD DAQ Project Lead BaBar DAQ LSST Camera MIE DAQ sub-system manager Kevin Reil (Camera/ComCam) Experimental astrophysicist LSST Camera MIE I&T Manager Travis Lange (Camera I&T ) Mechanical Engineer 5

6 Commissioning WBS is in place and DOE funded effort has been identified and documented
Description DOE Contribution 06C.02.01 Commissioning Management 06C.02.02 Commissioning Planning, Preparation, Tooling, & Simulations 06C ComCam Development & Oversight Camera shipping costs 06C Camera Summit Servicing Area Preparation Large Portion of Scope 06C Analysis Software and Procedure Simulation & Validation Scientist only 06C Special Tooling Shipping Containers and Tools 06C.02.03 Early System AI&T 06C ComCam Shipping, Receiving & Reverification CCS Install, DAQ Install, Commissioning of ComCam 06C Calibration System AI&T Some CCS and DAQ support 06C Camera Refrigeration Pathfinder AI&T 06C ComCam - Telescope AI&T CCS and DAQ Support, Engineering Support, Scientist Support 06C DMS + TCS/OCS + ComCam AI&T CCS, DAQ, Scientist and Observation Support 06C Performance Optimization & Characterization 06C.02.04 Full System AI&T 06C Camera Shipping, Receiving & Reverification 06C Camera-Telescope AI&T 06C DMS+ TCS/OCS + Cam. Integration 06C.02.05 Science Verification 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 1 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 2 06C Operations Readiness Review Preparations Full DOE team supports 06C SV Data Handling and Processing Primarily Scientists

7 LSST Camera MIE project on track to deliver the CD-4 required transition to operation plan
Transition to operation CD-4 deliverable covers camera MIE construction transition to camera commissioning (early operation) Document has been drafted (LCA-10825) and reviewed at CD-3. This document will be updated to reflect details of the camera commissioning plan once reviewed at this review Technical details of the camera MIE construction transition to commissioning early operation were presented in Kevin Reil’s talk (see 11:45am presentation) Phase 0: Summit facility preparation Phase 1: ComCam Phase 2: LSST Camera (shipping, unpack, install, re-verify) Phase 3: Science verification Integrated safety management (see presentation from Chuck Gessner at 12:15pm)

8 Cost assumptions for the DOE supported commissioning budget
The following are the cost assumptions for developing the commissioning budget as applied to DOE estimates. The base year for all cost estimates is FY16. Labor rates and material rates have indirect applied in Primavera 6. Labor and material indirect rates are the official rates provided by SLAC (other institution may be used. Contingency is estimated using a task based maturity assessment for every task. Labor rates and M&S costs are escalated by 3.5% (burden and overhead percentage are fixed) FTEs are calculated assuming 1 FTE=1800 hours and 1440 hours for scientists to account for science time Scientist effort (for DOE scope support) are contributed on science budget except in the case of faculty contribution in excess of 2 months of effort (21 FTE of contributed labor)

9 Commissioning Cost Break down
WBS Description Total Cost ($K) DOE Cost ($K) 06C.02.01 Commissioning Management $21,951 $10,673 06C.02.02 Commissioning Planning, Preparation, Tooling, & Simulations $3,581 $1,203 06C.02.03 Early System AI&T $4,712 $1,517 06C.02.04 Full System AI&T $3,010 $1,374 06C.02.05 Science Verification $3,067 $521 Planned Cost ($K) $36,321 $15,289 Total Commissioning Cost is. $36.3M total, $15.3M supported by DOE (including contingency) LSSTCam MIE closes at SLAC after Camera verifies that it has met the KPPs

10 Cost Breakdown is well understood
LSST Commissioning (DOE funded) Category Total Cost ($K) Labor $9,834 M&S $363 Travel $653 Shipping $630 Contingency $3,810 Total $15,289 LSST Commissioning (DOE funded) Labor type Total Cost ($K) Management $1,507 Engineer $2,074 Sr. Engineer $1,472 Software Engineer $692 Sr. Software Engineer $3,201 Technician $636 Sr. Technician $251 Total $9,834

11 Budget Authority Versus Budget Actuals/Obligation
LSST Commissioning DOE funding is able to support the Camera commissioning plan per expected funding profile except in FY17/FY18 Expected LSST DOE related funding profile Pre-Operations Activities activities in our schedule 6834 Going forward we have 1304 milestones milestones per year (after April 1st): Fy13 = 159; Fy14=295; Fy15=290; Fy16=266; Fy17=139; Fy18=96; Fy19=41; Fy20=20

12 Staffing Profile is achievable and transitions well from MIE and into operation
The resource loaded schedule enables us to optimize our delivery plans. The staffing profile transitions well with MIE end of construction Operation ramp up is independent of commissioning due to mostly different skillsets 52 FTE total (32 FTE supported on budget, 21 FTE contributed scientists)

13 FTE profile is consistent with a successful commissioning schedule
12 months of contingency

14 Contingency Analysis Details
Risk Factor Value Risk Weight Technical Existing design/procedure & off-the-shelf hardware 1 Minor modifications to an existing design/procedure 2 Extensive modifications to an existing design/procedure 3 New design/procedure, nothing exotic 4 Design OR manufacturing New design/procedure, different from established designs, existing technology or procedures 6 Design AND manufacturing New design/procedure, requires some R&D, but does not advance the state of the art 8 New design, development of new technology or processes that advances the state of the art 10 New design/procedures, way beyond state of the art 15 Cost Off-the-shelf or catalog item Vendor quote from established drawings Vendor quote with some design sketches In-house estimate based on previous similar experience Material cost OR labor rate In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capability Material cost AND labor rate In-house estimate for item with minimal experience & minimal in-house capability Top-down estimate from analogous programs Engineering judgement Schedule No schedule impact on any other item Delays completion of noncritical path subsystem item Same for all Delays completion of critical path subsystem item Foreign Location Domestic location Simple foreign location Complex foreign location Sole Source Multiple possible sources Simple single source Complex single source Each DOE activities was assessed in the commissioning plan at WBS level 3 Assessment reflects technical maturity, cost, schedule factors Similar approach successfully used for the LSST MIE project at CD-2 Contingency Factor (%) = (Technical risk factor * Technical risk weight) + (Cost risk factor * Cost risk weight) + (Schedule risk factor * 1) + (Location origination risk factor * 1) + (Source availability risk factor * 1)

15 Maturity based cost estimate uncertainty estimate (not in risk registry)
WBS Description Budgeted Cost ($K) Activity Based contingency (%) Activity Based contingency ($K) 06C.02.01 Commissioning Management $6,863 33% $2,285 06C.02.02 Commissioning Planning, Preparation, Tooling, & Simulations - 06C ComCam Development & Oversight $25 24% $6 06C Camera Summit Servicing Area Preparation $184 $44 06C Analysis Software and Procedure Simulation & Validation $0 06C Special Tooling $994 $239 06C.02.03 Early System AI&T 06C ComCam Shipping, Receiving & Reverification $502 29% $146 06C Calibration System AI&T $7 06C Camera Refrigeration Pathfinder AI&T $466 40% $186 06C ComCam - Telescope AI&T $477 $138 06C DMS + TCS/OCS + ComCam AI&T $77 $22 06C.02.04 Full System AI&T 06C Camera Shipping, Receiving & Reverification $809 $324 06C Camera-Telescope AI&T $512 $205 06C DMS+ TCS/OCS + Cam. Integration $53 $21 06C.02.05 Science Verification 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 1 $170 $68 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 2 $85 $34 06C Operations Readiness Review Preparations $267 $107 06C SV Data Handling and Processing TOTAL $11,479 $3,810 Percentage for each high level WBS element should be agreed upon by Chuck/Kevin/Steve/Victor/Vincent. Total is generally an RMS sum of each WBS element

16 LSST Commissioning Risk are identified
Commissioning risks are documented in the commissioning risk registry (See backup slide for risk methodology) Current status: 18 total risks identified 8 Camera related commissioning risks

17 Commissioning top risks related to DOE funded effort
Risk Title Risk Description (if/then) Score Current Exposure Camera Late to Summit If the camera is late to the summit THEN schedule following it's arrival is delayed. 14.0 Moderate Refrigeration Pathfinder IF the refrigeration pathfinder efforts are not time efficient THEN other ComCam related commissioning work will be delayed. 10.7 DOE Early Ops Funding IF DOE early operations funding is not available THEN schedule will delayed or commissioning descopes will need to occur. 10.5 ComCam efficiency IF initial integration and commissioning of ComCam is not time efficient THEN mini surveys or other pre LSSTCam activities may be reduced in scope 9.5 Minor Camera Damage in Chipping IF the camera sustains shipping damage THEN integration of the camera onto the telscope will be delayed 9.3 ComCam Logistics IF ComCam front end assembly integration work at SLAC interferes with camera work THEN one of the two schedules will be impacted. 7.0 ComCam Late to Summit IF the ComCam is delivered to the summit behind schedule THEN the Early System AI&T schedule will need to be adjusted with possible descopes 6.3 Camera-Telescope Interfaces IF interface issues between the camera and telescope and site teams remain at integration time THEN camera integration could be prolonged. 5.3

18 Major Milestones to be tracked during commissioning
116 milestones for the entire commissioning effort captured in the resource loaded schedule DOE scope related Milestones well defined (summary below) Milestone ID Milestones Date COMC Camera Facility Fiber Optic Lines Ready 11-Dec-17 COMC Camera Facility Refrigeration Lines Ready 27-Dec-17 COMC Summit Facility White Room ready 4-Jan-18 COMC ComCam Dewar Ready for AI&T in Tucson 30-Oct-18 * COMC On-Site CCS Software Install 3-Jul-19 COMC ComCam arrives at summit 25-Jul-19 * COMC   on-Site ComCam DAQ Install 15-Aug-19 COMC White Room Refrigeration System Ready for LSSTCam 30-Oct-19 COMC ComCam Ready to Start Early System AI&T 4-Nov-19 **COMC LSSTCam Pre-Ship Acceptance 14-Feb-20 COMC LSSTCam Summit 13-Mar-20 COMC TMA Refrigeration Tests Complete 18-Jun-20 COMC Camera Reverification Complete 29-Jul-20 COMC LSSTCam-Tel Integration Complete 19-Mar-21 COMC Operation Readiness Review Complete 23-Aug-21 * Not a commissioning deliverable but tracked as a need from MIE ** MIE main deliverable

19 Summary The scope of the commissioning effort supported by DOE is well understood Detailed cost estimates and schedules have been generated Staffing and profile is compatible with Camera MIE project and operation Adjustment to the funding profile would allow for a more optimized commissioning effort (FY17 and FY18 funding)

20 End

21 DOE funded rate assumptions
Fringe Labor Indirect 30.60% 60.50% Position Hourly Rate ($) engineer 62.4 technician 53.7 sr. technician 55.35 sr. engineer 93.54 scientist 84.67 sr. scientist 93.13 software eng. 64.17 sr. software eng. 75.25 management 96.25

22 Definition of Risk and Risk Analysis
Risk can be defined as an undesirable event during project execution that negatively effects program goals for performance, cost or schedule. Risk management is the ongoing process of comprehensively assessing project risks. methodology to manage risks is defined below Definition of Risk Probability Pts Likelihood of Occurrence Approximate Probability Description of Probability 1 Rare <1% Likelihood of occurrence is not credible 2 Unlikely 1-5% Not reasonably expected to occur 3 Possible 5-25% Possible, or difficult to assess the chance of occurrence 4 Likely 25-67% Very likely that an adverse event will occur 5 Highly Probable >67% High probability that an adverse event will come to pass Definition of Risk Impact Pts Severity of Impact Description of Impact Cost Impact 1 Insignificant Overrun of cost of < $30K, recoverable with project contingency 2 Minor Overrun of cost of $30k - $200K, recoverable with project contingency 3 Moderate Overrun of cost of 200k - $1.5M, with significant impact on contingency 4 High Overrun of baseline cost of $1.5M - $10M, with re-baseline required 5 Critical Overrun of baseline cost of >$10M, with project in jeopardy Schedule Impact Degradation of schedule margin to project critical path by < 2 wks Degradation of schedule margin to project critical path by 2 wks to 1.5 months Degradation of schedule margin to project critical path by 1.5 to 3 months Degradation of schedule margin to project critical path by 3 to 6 months Degradation of schedule margin to project critical path by > 6 months Performance Impact No effect on ability to meet requirements; minor design changes needed Minor excursion from subsystem requirement, but compensated elsewhere Level 2 and/or SRD design specification exceeded Level 1 and/or SRD minimum specification exceeded Unable to achieve any of the primary science missions Quasi-quantitative process to assign objective values to probability of occurrence and impact of occurrence aspects of risk. Total Impact: (0.50*Cost Impact) (0.33*Schedule Impact) + (0.33*Performance Impact) Risk Score: Risk Probability * Total Impact

23 Contingency Assessment details
WBS Description Technical Risk Weight Cost Risk Schedule Risk Foreign Location Sole Source Cont. 06C.02.01 Commissioning Management Level of effort 33% 06C.02.02 Commissioning Planning, Preparation, Tooling, & Simulations 06C ComCam Development & Oversight New design, development of new technology or processes that advances the state of the art Design OR manufacturing In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capability Material cost OR labor rate No schedule impact on any other item Domestic location Multiple possible sources 24% 06C Camera Summit Servicing Area Preparation 06C Analysis Software and Procedure Simulation & Validation 06C Special Tooling 06C.02.03 Early System AI&T 06C ComCam Shipping, Receiving & Reverification Delays completion of noncritical path subsystem item Simple foreign location 29% 06C Calibration System AI&T 06C Camera Refrigeration Pathfinder AI&T Delays completion of critical path subsystem item Complex foreign location 40% 06C ComCam - Telescope AI&T 06C DMS + TCS/OCS + ComCam AI&T 06C.02.04 Full System AI&T 06C Camera Shipping, Receiving & Reverification 06C Camera-Telescope AI&T 06C DMS+ TCS/OCS + Cam. Integration 06C.02.05 Science Verification 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 1 06C Scheduler Driven mini-Surveys 2 06C Operations Readiness Review Preparations 06C SV Data Handling and Processing


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