1. National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
We hope you find this presentation to be a useful tool. It is based on the 28-page booklet Ecological Impacts of Climate Change from the National Academy of Sciences.
If you do not already have a copy of this booklet, please visit to order printed copies or download a free pdf.
A presentation developed by the National Academy of Sciences based on its report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2009):

2. The Climate is Changing
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
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National Research Council
Temperatures are rising
Sea levels are rising
The ocean is acidifying
Climate change is reflected in water cycle changes and in extreme weather
Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850.
See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7
Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990.
Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels.
The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins.
Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter.
Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean, U. of Washington.

3. Ecological Impacts
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National Academy of Engineering
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National Research Council
Living things are intimately connected to their physical surroundings.
Ecosystems are affected by changes in:
temperature
rainfall/moisture pH
salinity (saltiness)
activities & distribution of other species
…many other factors
See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 8
Ask audience to consider a particular local species, or pick one from the pictures in the slide.
What are the conditions in its environment that affect this species?
Which of these factors may be changing and in what ways?
In addition to being affected by their physical environment, living things are also intimately connected to each other. For example, honey is produced in a beehive, but the bees depend on pollen and nectar from the plants they pollinate. These plants, in turn, depend on the bees that pollinate them, the worms that aerate the soil, the microbes that release nutrients, and many other organisms. This diverse array of creatures is key to the functioning of the entire system.

4. Ecological Impacts
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
ranges
timing of biological activity
growth rates
relative abundance of species
cycling of water and nutrients
the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species
See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 8-10
Even small changes can have significant effects on living things.
Each species is affected by such changes individually, but those individual impacts can quickly reverberate through the intricate web of life that makes up an ecosystem. It is important to note that individual species may move and adapt—not entire ecosystems.

5. Ecological Impacts
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National Academy of Engineering
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National Research Council
As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
ranges
timing of biological activity
growth rates
relative abundance of species
cycling of water and nutrients
the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species
The first topic that will be highlighted is changes in species’ ranges.

6. Range Shifts
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National Academy of Engineering
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Species are relocating to areas with more tolerable climate conditions.
Range shifts particularly threaten species that:
cannot move fast enough
depend on conditions that are becoming more rare (like sea ice)
See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 8-9
About 40 percent of wild plants and animals that have been studied over decades are relocating to stay within their tolerable climate ranges.
Some organisms—those that cannot move fast enough or those whose ranges are actually shrinking—are being left with no place to go. For example, as arctic sea ice shrinks, so too shrink the habitats of animals that call this ice home, such as polar bears and seals. As these habitats contract toward the North and South poles, the animals that depend on them will reach the end of the Earth as they know it.
We will see specific examples of range shifts in some of the geographic area slides (such as the Checkerspot butterflies in the Pacific Coastline and the American Pika in the Western Mountains).
Plant hardiness zone maps, 1990 and Most zones shifted northward in this period.
Map courtesy of the National Arbor Day Foundation.

7. Ecological Impacts
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
ranges
timing of biological activity
growth rates
relative abundance of species
cycling of water and nutrients
the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species
The second topic that will be highlighted is changes in the timing of biological activity.

8. Timing of Biological Activity
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Timing of Biological Activity
Some seasonal biological activities are happening days earlier than several decades ago:
Trees blooming earlier
Migrating birds arriving earlier
Butterflies emerging earlier
Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted.
European pied flycatcher chicks are now born later than the caterpillars they eat.
See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 9
If all of the species in an ecosystem shifted their seasonal behavior in exactly the same way, shifts in the timing of biological activity might not create problems. But when a species depends upon another for survival and only one changes its timing, these shifts can disrupt important ecological interactions, such as that between predators and their prey.
For example, the European pied flycatcher has not changed the time it arrives on its breeding grounds even though the caterpillars it feeds its young are emerging earlier. Missing the peak of food availability means fewer chicks are surviving, in turn causing the flycatcher’s population to decline.
How might earlier blooming of trees and flowers affect other species?
What about the species that pollinate them?
Images used under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License.

9. Global Changes, Local Impacts
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National Academy of Engineering
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Global Changes, Local Impacts
Although climate change is global, the ecological impacts are often local.
After this page, you should show slides relating to your geographic area.
Before you show these slides, you may want to ask your audience to imagine one of their favorite local animals or plants.
What important aspects of its environment might be changing and how?
Might it need to move to stay within a tolerable climate range? Will it be able to?
How might its interactions with other species change?
Do you think its population might increase or decrease?
What’s happening in your backyard?