1. 106
105
104
*Swetnam and Betancourt, Science, 1993
FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE!
Clear Link: Regional Fire Years and ENSO*
Climate & Policy Linkages
Predictability at Local Scales
Concerned Stakeholders
New Direction for CLIMAS
Key points about fire:
1. Wet (usually El Nino) years increase fine fuels
2. When followed by dry years (usually La Nina), then fire hazard increases dramatically and predictably
3. Mention the overall trend in the graph -- due chiefly to the “Smokey the Bear effect,” I.e., a century of fire suppression
4. Mention that the Feb workshop occurred IN ADVANCE OF the 2000 fire season -- INTENTIONALLY and with GREAT WISDOM on the part of CLIMAS

2. FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE! Clear link: regional fire & ENSO
Local scale predictability
Concerned decision makers
FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE!
Clear Link: Regional Fire Years and ENSO*
Climate & Policy Linkages
Predictability at Local Scales
Concerned Stakeholders
New Direction for CLIMAS
Key points about fire:
1. Wet (usually El Nino) years increase fine fuels
2. When followed by dry years (usually La Nina), then fire hazard increases dramatically and predictably
3. Mention the overall trend in the graph -- due chiefly to the “Smokey the Bear effect,” I.e., a century of fire suppression
4. Mention that the Feb workshop occurred IN ADVANCE OF the 2000 fire season -- INTENTIONALLY and with GREAT WISDOM on the part of CLIMAS