1. Causation vs. Correlation Analyze Scatterplots

2. Correlation vs Causation
Correlation means there is a relationship between two data sets
you are looking at the association between the variables
correlation doesn’t have to mean that the input caused the outcome
Causation means that one set of data CAUSED the other to happen.

4. Remember, correlation does not mean causation.

5. Correlation vs Causation
Correlation is a necessary condition for causation
Meaning you need to see a correlation in order for there to be a causation
Correlation is not a sufficient condition for causation
Just a correlation is not enough to prove one caused the other, it could be a coincidence or due to other factors
Often mistaken for causation:
Common Response (different reasons that may cause similar results)
Confounding Variables (other unknown factors/variables that effect outcome)

6. Is it Causation or Correlation?
A recent study showed that college students were more likely to vote than their peers who where not in school.
Principal Kory noticed that there was more trash in the hallways on Tuesdays than Wednesdays.
You hit your little sister and she cried.
Correlation
Correlation
Causation

7. Carnegie Lesson 2 Guided Notes Practice
pg 188 – do you agree with their conclusion? Use pg together as class to practice determining causation vs. correlation

8. MORE EXAMPLES not in book:
Correlation tells us how closely two sets of information or data are related.
For example: Look at the US highway fatality rate and compare it to the metric tons of fresh lemons imported from Mexico.
We can see that this set of data has a strong correlation with an r-value of 0.97.
However, does the importing of lemons CAUSE traffic fatalities in the United States?

9. Causation: The act or process of causing; the act or agency which produces an effect.
A Causal Relationship between two things exists if one occurs because of the other.
For example: If you work less hours, you will earn less money.
In many cases, the direction of the cause and effect matters.
For example: If you earn less money, doesn’t necessarily mean you worked less hours. It could mean that the job pays less.
Another example: If you are obese, you will have diabetes.
However, the reverse isn’t necessarily true. If you have diabetes, you will be obese.

10. Proving causation is a major challenge.
There are no set rules or criteria for saying that a correlation is causation.
The more robust the correlation, the more LIKELY they are to imply causation.
For example: smoking and cancer.
Enough research has been conducted and the correlation between cancer and smoking is strong enough to be considered a causal relationship.
This means smoking causes cancer.
(The reverse isn’t true: cancer leads to smoking.)

11. Does this data show causation?
Is the divorce rate in Maine really caused by how much margarine is consumed?
Graph from:

12. Does this data show causation?
Are the number of people who drowned by falling into a swimming pool caused by the number of Nicolas Cage films that were made?
Graph from:

13. Does this data show causation?
Does consumption of mozzarella cheese cause more people to earn civil engineering doctorate degrees?
Graph from:

14. Does this data show causation?
Is the number of people who die by being tangled in their bed sheets caused by how much revenue was generated by skiing facilities?
Graph from:

15. Causation or Correlation
The manager of a toy store hires one new worker, Stacy, in December.
After Stacy is hired, the store’s sales shoot up by 300%.
“Wow!” the manager says to himself. “That Stacy is a fantastic sales worker! I haven’t hired anyone else but Stacy. Still, since I hired her, our sales have tripled! I’d better give her raise!”
Is the manager’s conclusion logical? Why or why not?
Image from Iclipart.

16. Newspaper Headlines
Many newspapers have headlines that make the reader BELIEVE that the relationship is based on causation.
Check out these titles:
Lack of sleep may shrink your brain
Early language skills reduce preschool tantrums, study finds
Dogs walked by men are more aggressive
Straight A's in high school may mean better health later in life
Eating brown rice to cut diabetes risk
Deep voiced men "have more kids“
Eat sweets, live longer
Image from Iclipart.