1. The Calculus of Sustainability
Thomas J. Pfaff
Ithaca College

2. What is Sustainability?
Development (Living in such a way) that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
-1987 at the World Commission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Commission, former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland)

3. Three E’s or P’s of Sustainability

5. Joint Science Academies Statement
It has become increasingly clear that there are very serious difficulties related to sustainability and security of energy. These include: Major global and regional impacts on the environment, climate change, and health from an extrapolation of current energy sources and systems.
June 2006

6. National Academies Report: Climate Change
The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.
-March 2006

8. A Look at Global Temperature
T(x)= x x F
T’(x)= x F/year
x years after 1950
T(57)= F and T’(57)= F/year
In 2007 the average global temperature was deg F and increasing at a rate of deg F per year.
- Now Ask a Question About This-

9. Temperature Predictions
T(75)=59.6 F and T(150)=68.04 F
The model predicts that in 2025 the average temperature will be 59.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be deg F, an increase of 1.13 and 9.61 deg F, respectively, since 2007.
–Now Ask a Question About This-

10. More Temperature Predictions
Using T’(57)=.0531 F/year
If global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2025 there will be an increase of 0.96 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 4.94 deg F. The average global temperature in those years will be and 63.37, respectively.

12. -National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)

17. Our Changing Climate Report

19. Summary of Grain Model
In 2006 grain production was decreasing at a rate of kg/person/year.
Grain production peaked in 1987 at kg/person.
According to the model grain production reduces to 200 kg/person by 2025.
On the other hand, according to the tangent line, grain production reduces to 200 kg/person by 2035.

22. M. King Hubbert’s ( ), chief consultant-general geology- for shell development company, 1956 paper Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.

25. Normal Density:
55% of all domestic oil was consumed from 1960 to 2000:
99% of all domestic oil is predicted to be consumed by 2036:

27. Resources http://www.ithaca.edu/tpfaff/sustainability.htm