1. regional climate and climate change in past decades: CoastDat
Reconstruction of
regional climate and climate change in past decades: CoastDat
Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Matthias Zahn
Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany
and KlimaCampus, U of Hamburg, Germany
15 min’s
Abstract Reference Number:
Abstract Title: Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades
Paper Number: A31H-01
Presentation Type: Oral Presentation
Presentation Date and Time: December 16, 2009; 8:00 AM to 8:15 AM
Presentation Length: 15 minutes
Location: 3002 (Moscone West)

2. What is coastDat?
A set of model data of recent, ongoing and possible future coastal climate (hindcasts , reconstructions and scenarios for the future, e.g., )
Based on experiences and activities in a number of national and international projects (e.g. WASA, HIPOCAS, STOWASUS, PRUDENCE)
Presently contains atmospheric and oceanographic parameter (e.g. near-surface winds, pressure, temperature and humidity; upper air meteorological data such as geopotential height, cloud cover, temperature and humidity; oceanographic data such as sea states (wave heights, periods, directions, spectra) or water levels (tides and surges) and depth averaged currents, ocean temperatures)
Covers different geographical regions (presently mainly the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic; other areas such as the Baltic Sea, subarctic regions or E-Asia are to be included)
contact: Ralf Weisse

3. Overview
Construction of CoastDat
Validation of CoastDat
Applications

4. Downscaling cascade.
run with NCEP,

5. global model variance Spatial scales Insufficiently resolved
Well resolved
Spatial scales

6. regional model variance Spatial scales Added value
Insufficiently resolved
Well resolved
Spatial scales
Added value

7. Concept of Dynamical Downscaling RCM Physiographic detail
3-d vector of state
Known large scale state
projection of full state on large-scale scale
Large-scale (spectral) nudging

8. Extreme wind speeds over sea – simulated and recorded
These plots are the quantile-quantile diagrams (REMO & NCEP Vs Observations) for 10-m wind speed at 2 buoys station. The first one is an Atlantic offshore buoy (ZBGSO, located at
48.7N,12.40W), already assimilated by NCEP. The second one shows results from a Mediterranean buoy (ZATOS, located at 39.96N, 24.72E, Aegean Sea), whose data have NOT been previously assimilated by NCEP.

9. Hourly data, 50 km grid,

10. Interannual Variability Water Levels
(Weisse and Plüß 2006)
Annual mean winter high waters Cuxhaven red – reconstruction, black – observations

11. Applications
N European Storm Climate and related issues (incl. industrial applications)
Polar Lows in the North Atlantic
Polar Lows in North Pacific
Typhoons in E Asia
Pathways of gasoline lead pollution

12. Changing significant wave height, 1958-2002
waves
50,75, 90, 95, 99 and 99.9%iles of significant wave heights (m) and linear trends
wind

13. Some applications of coastDat
- Ship design
Problem:
. RoRo liners operating on fixed routes . Operation time critical
Idea: . Optimization of velocity profile taking environmental conditions into account (e.g. water depth, wave height, wave angle)
Example:
. 200 m RoRo liner Zeebrügge-Immingham . Compared to conventional approach delayed in 7% of time; only in 0.5% more than 30 min . Reduced operation costs (200 TEUR/year due to reduced fuel consumption)
Source: Flensburger Schiffbau Gesellschaft

14. Climate simulations with CLM ( ~50km) for Polar Lows 1948-2007
Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008: A longterm climatology of North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702, doi: /2008GL035769
For scenarios, see poster: Future projections of North Atlantic polar low frequency

15. North Atlantic Polar Lows

16. Flow and deposition of substances
Lead deposition in Europe
Many anthropogenic substances released into the environment are transported over long distances and are deposited all over Europe and the rest of the world.
Long term and spatially representative measurements unavailable. Alternative: use of circulation and precipitation from long-term weather reconstruction to model fate of substances.
Flow and deposition of substances
die Emissionsdatenbasen stammen von Pacyna und wurden im wesentlichen aus Schätzungen von Experten aus den einzelnen europäischen Ländern zusammengestellt. Diese Emissionen gibt es für 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 93
Die europäischen BaP Emissionen werden deutlich durch die stationäre Verbrennung von fossilen Brennstoffen dominiert. Mit ca. 45% der Gesamtemissionen 1990 waren industrielle Produktionsprozesse wie Kokerei, Stahl und Aluminium Produktion die bedeutendste Quellkategorie, gefolgt von der nicht industriellen Verbrennung von Kohle. Emissionen aus mobilen Dieselmotoren trugen insgesamt mit knapp 6% bei.
von Storch, H., M. Costa-Cabral, C. Hagner, F. Feser, J. Pacyna, E. Pacyna, and S.Kolb, 2003: Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe: A retrospective assessment, The Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN) 311,

17. Lead in Europe, 1975
Emissions
Depositions

18. model estimate

19. Weisse, R. , H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I
Weisse, R., H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I. Grabemann, H. Günther, A. Plüss, T. Stoye, J. Tellkamp, J. Winterfeldt and K. Woth, 2009:
Regional meteo-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potentials for coastal and offshore applications.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90:
(open access)