1. TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT: ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS November 2, 2011
Frederick R. Ignatovich, Ph.D.
STANFRED Consultants
Frequently, presenters must deliver material of a technical nature to an audience unfamiliar with the topic or vocabulary. The material may be complex or heavy with detail. To present technical material effectively, use the following guidelines from Dale Carnegie Training®.
Consider the amount of time available and prepare to organize your material. Narrow your topic. Divide your presentation into clear segments. Follow a logical progression. Maintain your focus throughout. Close the presentation with a summary, repetition of the key steps, or a logical conclusion.
Keep your audience in mind at all times. For example, be sure data is clear and information is relevant. Keep the level of detail and vocabulary appropriate for the audience. Use visuals to support key points or steps. Keep alert to the needs of your listeners, and you will have a more receptive audience.

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IT IS NOT GOOD FOR A MAN TO BE WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE, AND HE WHO MAKES HASTE WITH HIS FEET MISSES HIS WAY. (Proverbs 19:2)
F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

3. This Presentation Will Focus on Two Themes
The Process Used to Do the Projections
The Projections for the District

4. THEME I: THE PROCESS DATA SOURCES CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION
BIRTHS
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION
BUILDING PERMITS
CENSUS PROFILE
REGIONAL ENROLLMENT DATA
PROGRAM AND HISTORICAL INFORMATION
DISTRICT PERSONNEL

5. DATA SOURCES - BIRTHS
ANNUALLY BIRTHS ARE REPORTED BY THE RESIDENCE OF THE MOTHER FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE UNITED STATES
Sources: Michigan Department of Community Health and The National Center for Health Statistics

9. DATA SOURCES – ENROLLMENT HISTORY
EACH FALL ENROLLMENTS ARE COUNTED, AUDITED, AND REPORTED TO THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION.
Source: Michigan Department of Education

10. PROJECTING KINDERGARTEN
WE DETERMINE THE PERCENTAGE OF BIRTHS THAT ENROLL IN KINDERGARTEN FIVE YEARS LATER
THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE RESIDENT BIRTH DATA WITH ACTUAL ENROLLMENT DATA
THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF YEARS
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11. Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Troy School District
SCHOOL YEAR
B-K RATIO
95-96
5.10
96-97
4.69
97-98
4.55
98-99
4.42
99-00
4.58
00-01
4.46
01-02
02-03
03-04
4.67
04-05
4.61
05-06
4.65
06-07
4.95
07-08
5.46*
08-09
5.27*
09-10
5.22*
10-11
5.62*
11-12
5.66*
Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Troy School District
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PROJECTING GRADES
WE DETERMINE WHAT CHANGES OCCUR TO A COHORT OF STUDENTS AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GRADES.
THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE ENROLLMENT DATA FOR A GRADE WITH THE ENROLLMENT IN THE NEXT HIGHER GRADE THE NEXT YEAR.
THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF YEARS FOR EACH GRADE LEVEL.
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13. Troy School District Kindergarten to 1st Grade Cohort Ratios
SCHOOL YEAR
K – 1
98-99
106.72
99-00
106.85
00-01
106.97
01-02
105.54
02-03
106.05
03-04
109.70
04-05
112.13
05-06
105.42
06-07
106.88
07-08
103.57
08-09
101.92*
09-10
10-11
106.40
11-12
111.80*
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14. ALTERNATIVE DISTRICT PROJECTIONS
WE PRODUCE THREE SETS OF PROJECTIONS WITH EACH SET ASSUMING DIFFERENT DEGREES OF UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE OCCURRANCES AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS: LOW VOLITILITY, MEDIUM VOLITILITY, AND HIGH VOLITILITY
EACH PROJECTION SET CONSISTS OF THREE ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS: A LOW, MOST LIKELY, AND HIGH PROJECTION
A TREND ANALYSIS OF THE LAST THREE YEARS IS CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE WHICH SET OF PROJECTIONS AND THE ALTERNATIVE PROJECTION WITHIN THE SET THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE
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15. CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – BUILDING PERMITS
MONTHLY THE NUMBER OF APPROVED SINGLE FAMILY HOME BUILDING PERMITS IS REPORTED FOR EACH CIVIL SUBDIVISION (E.G. CITY, VILLAGE, AND TOWNSHIP) IN OAKLAND COUNTY.
Source: SEMCOG

18. CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – HOUSING DEVELOPMENT AND TURNOVER
Constituent Civil Subdivisions Generally Highly Developed – Development Potential for New Homes Low Within Troy School District
Slow Gradual Turnover of Existing Housing Expected with Low Foreclosure and Low Vacancy Rates
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19. CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – CENSUS PROFILE
THE 2000 CENSUS AND 2010 CENSUS PROVIDES DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FOR THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AND THE MAJOR CIVIL SUBDIVISIONS OF A SCHOOL DISTRICT.
Sources: 2000 CENSUS (NORTHWEST MICHIGAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS), 2010 CENSUS (SEMCOG AND THE CENSUS BUREAU )

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CENSUS COMPARISON 2000 VS MICHIGAN AND CITY OF TROY MI MI TROY TROY
6.8% vs % % vs %
12.3% vs % % vs %
73.8% vs % % vs %
10.6% vs % % vs %
26.2% vs % % vs %
UNDER 5 YEARS
65 YEARS AND OVER
OWNER OCCUPIED HOMES
VACANT HOUSING UNITS
RENTER OCCUPIED
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21. CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – REGIONAL ENROLLMENT DATA
ENROLLMENTS IN OAKLAND ISD PUBLIC AND NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS OVER MULTIPLE YEARS HELP IDENTIFY TRENDS AND PROVIDES INSIGHTS REGARDING FACTORS AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS IN A LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT.
Sources: MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND CEPI – MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY

22. Regional Enrollment Data Troy School District
The Number of Oakland ISD K-12 Public School Districts Was Constant From The Fall 2001 To The Fall 2009: N= 28
The Number of Non-Public Schools In Oakland ISD Decreased From 123 In The Fall 2001 To 107 In The Fall 2009
The Number of Public School Academies (PSA or Public Charter Schools) In Oakland ISD Increased From 12 In The Fall 2001 To 19 In The Fall 2009
K-12 Enrollment in Oakland ISD K-12 Public School Districts Decreased Slightly From 188,511 In The Fall of 2001 to 185,501 In The Fall of 2009 (a -3,010 loss or -1.6% over eight years)
Enrollment in Oakland ISD Non-Public Schools Decreased Very Substantially From 31,029 In The Fall of 2001 to 25,447 In The Fall of 2009 (a -5,582 loss or -17.9% over eight years)
K-12 Enrollment in Oakland ISD Public School Academies (PSA or Public Charter Schools) Increased dramatically From 7,017 In The Fall of 2001 to 11,034 In The Fall of 2009 (a +4,017 gain or +57.2% over eight years)
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23. HISTORICAL AND PROGRAM INFORMATION
OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS CONVERSATIONS WERE CONDUCTED TO IDENTIFY HISTORICAL EVENTS AND PROGRAM CHANGES THAT AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF STUDENTS THROUGH THE GRADES AND ARRIVAL OR DEPARTURE OF STUDENTS IN THE DISTRICT (e.g. non-public schools, charter schools, schools of choice, migrant students, local economy, local housing, and changes in programs and policies).

24. Historical and Program Information Troy School District
Increased Participation of Troy School District Residents in Programs of Neighboring Districts (Troy School District Residents Attending Other Public School Districts): Fall 2002 – 299, Fall 2006 – 279, Fall 2008 – 326, Fall 2009 – 395, Fall 2010 – 432)
Increased Enrollment of Non-Resident Students Attending Troy School District: Fall 2002 – 295, Fall 2006 – 320, Fall 2008 – 450, Fall 2009 – 572, Fall 2010 – 683
Recent Increased Participation by Troy School District Residents Attending Charter Schools: Fall – 21, Fall 2006 – 21, Fall 2008 – 25, Fall – 39, Fall 2010 – 75 {Huron Academy 25, Michigan Virtual Charter Academy 10, Manoogian School 9, Four Corners Montessori Academy 9, Others 22})
(continued on next slide)
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25. Historical and Program Information Troy School District
Increased Intake of Kindergarten School of Choice (SOC) Students from Fall 2006 to Fall 2011 : Fall 2006 – 31, Fall 2007 – 50, Fall 2008 – 49, Fall 2009 – 71, Fall 2010 – 102, Fall 2011 – 106
Variable Intake of First Grade School of Choice Students from Fall to Fall 2011 : Fall 2006 – 20, Fall 2007 – 12, Fall 2008 – 8, Fall 2009 – 13, Fall 2010 – 28, Fall 2011 – 35
Initial Intake of Middle School SOC Students for Fall 2011 (Only at Baker Middle School): Fall 2011 – 25
Development and Phase In of High School International Academy East (IAE) Program Starting in the Fall 2008 (Grade 9) with Full Implementation in the Fall 2011 (Grades 9-12)
Increased Intake of Non Resident High School Freshman (Via Tuition/Waiver/Child of Employee/IAE(105C) Fall 2008 to Fall 2011 : Fall 2008 – 30, Fall 2009 – 37, Fall 2010 – 33, Fall 2011 – 61
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26. THEME II: THE PROJECTIONS ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT
TROY SD K-12 HEAD COUNT**
TROY SD 6-8 HEAD COUNT**
TROY SD 9-12 HEAD COUNT**
TROY SD SENIOR CLASS HEAD COUNT**
** EXCLUDING ECP [EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAM], SCSE [SELF CONTAINED SPECIAL EDUCATION], AND GROW [POST SECONDARY SPECIAL EDUCATION] STUDENT COUNTS

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28. TROY SD K-12 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK
K-12 HEAD COUNT enrollment was very stable from to from 11,837 to 11,849 (an increase of +12 students or +0.1%)
A very substantial increase of +287 students or +2.4% occurred from to (increasing to 12,136)
The High projection indicates a moderate increase (a student gain or +5.8% over five years) from to (from 12,136 to 12,842)
The Most Likely projection indicates a slight increase (a +83 student gain or +0.7% over five years) from to (from 12,136 to 12,219)
The Low projection indicates a moderate decline (a student loss or -4.3% over five years) from to (from 12,136 to 11,612)
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30. TROY SD K-5 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK
K-5 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from to (a -315 student loss or -6.0% over six years) from 5,230 to 4,915)
K-5 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from to (a +319 student gain or +6.5% over eight years) from 4,915 to 5,234)
The High projection indicates a modest increase (a +147 student gain or +2.8% over five years) from to (from 5,234 to 5,381)
The Most Likely projection indicates a modest loss (-108 students or -2.1% over five years) from to (from 5,234 to 5,126)
The Low projection indicates a substantial loss (-366 student loss or % over five years) from to (from 5,234 to 4,868)
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32. TROY SD 6-8 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK
6-8 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from to (a +110 student gain or +3.9% over five years) from 2,855 to 2,965
6-8 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from to (a -140 student loss or -4.7% over nine years) from 2,965 to 2,825
The High projection indicates a very substantial increase (a +333 student gain or +11.8% over five years) from to (from 2,825 to 3,158)
The Most Likely projection indicates a substantial increase (a +208 students gain or +7.4% over five years) from to (from 2,825 to 3,033)
The Low projection indicates a modest increase (a +86 student gain or +3.0% over five years) from to (from 2,825 to 2,911)
The ten year long range projections from to indicate: for the High a +255 student gain or +9.0%, for the Most Likely a -8 student loss or %, and for the Low a -257 student loss or -9.1%.
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34. TROY SD 9-12 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK
9-12 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from to (a +479 student gain or +12.8% over nine years) from 3,752 to 4,231
9-12 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from to (a -154 student loss or -3.6% over five years) from 4,231 to 4,077
The High projection indicates a moderate increase (a +226 student gain or +5.5% over five years) from to (from 4,077 to 4,303)
The Most Likely projection indicates a slight loss (-17 students loss or -0.4% over five years) from to (from 4,077 to 4,060)
The Low projection indicates a moderate loss (-244 student loss or -6.0% over five years) from to (from 4,077 to 3,833)
The ten year long range projections from to indicate: for the High a +902 student gain or +22.1%, for the Most Likely a +403 student gain or +9.9%, and for the Low a -55 student loss or -1.3%
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36. TROY SD SENIOR CLASS HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK
Senior Class HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from to (a +232 student gain or +24.8% over ten years) from 934 to 1,166
Senior Class HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from to (a -122 student loss or -10.5% over four years) from 1,166 to 1,044
The High projection indicates a substantial increase (a +75 student gain or +7.2% over five years) from to (from 1,044 to 1,119)
The Most Likely projection indicates virtually no change (a +1 student gain of less than +0.1% over five years) from to (from 1,044 to 1,045)
The Low projection indicates a substantial decrease (-69 student loss or % over five years) from to (from 1,044 to 975)
The ten year long range projections from to indicate: for the High a +219 student gain or +21.0%, for the Most Likely a +88 student gain or +8.4%, and for the Low a -32 student loss or -3.1%
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37. -4.3% +0.7% +5.8% -7.0% -2.1% +2.8% +3.0% +7.4% +11.8% -6.0% -0.4%
SUMMARY OF HEAD COUNT PROJECTIONS TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT FROM TO
GRADE LEVEL
TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT LOW
TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT MOST LIKELY
TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT HIGH
K-12
-4.3%
+0.7%
+5.8%
K-5
-7.0%
-2.1%
+2.8%
6-8
+3.0%
+7.4%
+11.8%
9-12
-6.0%
-0.4%
+5.5%
SENIOR CLASS
-6.6%
+ 0.1%
+7.2%
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So what should we expect? For Facilities Planning Purposes: We suggest expecting future enrollments to fall between the Most Likely and High projections closer to the Most Likely –- two times the Most Likely plus the High divided by three.
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Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future. (Proverbs 19:20)
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