1. What can CREATE contribute to SUMPs?
Peter Jones
Scientific Coordinator
SUMPS Co-ordinating Group Meeting, Brussels, 7th and 8th June, 2017

2. The Proposition
The SUMP is an important policy tool that encourages cities to look well beyond providing for private motor vehicles and instead to promote sustainable urban mobility
But it is now recognised by leading cities that transport systems play a much wider role in delivering city visions
Although SUMP guidance alludes to this, it seems that it is not yet well embedded in SUMP practice
CREATE can assist in this, in several ways

3. What is CREATE? ‘Transport Policy Development Process’
Planning for people movement: public transport, walking & cycling; car restraint
Planning for city life: transport as ‘place’, remove obtrusive transport infrastructure, support other objectives (e.g. health)
Planning for motor vehicles: road building, parking

4. Car Driver Modal Shares over Time

5. Observed Stages of Policy Development
Stage 1: vehicles - promoting car ownership and car use
1A: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles
1B: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parks
Stage 2: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability
2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows
2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car traffic
Stage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability
3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure
3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)

6. Focus of Most Existing SUMPs
Stage 1: vehicles - promoting car ownership and car use
1A: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles
1B: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parks
Stage 2: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability
2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows
2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car traffic
Stage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability
3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure
3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)

7. Dubrovnik SUMP conference
30/03/17

8. CREATE’s Contribution
Articulating what a Stage 3 city looks like
Including forecasting and appraisal implications
Advising cities on how to compress the journey from Stage 1 to Stage 3
Setting out ideas for future city development – a possible Stage 4?

9. ‘Stage 3’ Characteristics
Focus on place-making and liveability
New types of objectives, indicators and appraisal
Re-assessment of the transport planning process: from ‘predict and provide’ to ‘vision and validate’

10. Stage 3A: Motorway Removal and Place Making Portland Seoul
Stage Stage 3A

11. Stage 3: Street Redesign1

12. Stage 3: TfL’s London-wide Street Classification

13. Indicators by Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Average network speeds
Day-to-day variability
Vehicle congestion
Car parking availability
Road traffic accidents
Noise
Air pollution
PT frequency and reliability
Access to bus stops & stations
Safety and security
Seamless travel
PT modal split
Walking/cycling modal shares
Door-to-door travel times by mode
Time use in transport modes
Intensity of street activities
Time spent in local area
Value of high quality public space
Health of the population
Social interaction
Social equity and inclusion
Community severance

14. New indicator: severance caused by different types of roads
UK EPSRC Research Project
Provisional unpublished results

15. Severance index vs. willingness to pay
Provisional unpublished results

16. ‘Predict and Provide’
Can be traced back to 1960s Urban Land Use/ Transportation Studies:
Forecast likely growth in car ownership and use
Demonstrate inability of existing road networks to cope with this increased demand
Propose major road building to avoid extreme congestion and gridlock (maybe with demand management)
Iterate plans until major problems addressed (or budget/political limits reached)

17. Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 1
Develop comprehensive future city/country vision, with strong stakeholder engagement: desired living patterns and achievement of a set of agreed outcomes
Identify what transport can contribute to delivering the vision: major/minor investments - plus (more flexible) pricing and regulatory measures
Ensure co-ordinated with other sector strategies (e.g. health, education)

18. Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 2
Determine under what future range of conditions and behavioural responses this package of policies would provide good value for money – stress test
Then see how the programme can be tweaked to increase robustness, by covering more of the fan of possibilities – ‘Real Options Analysis’
Iterate with appraisal – but multi-sector, as many benefits from transport will accrue to other sectors, and actions by other sectors affect travel demand

19. ‘P & P’ vs ‘V & V’ ‘P & P’ ‘V & V’ Present Future
1. Forecasts, with uncertainty
2. Develop set of schemes which meet some parts of fan of possible demands, plus other objectives
‘P & P’
2. Generate ‘fan of possibilities’
1. Develop vision for future living
3. Stress test to see over what range of futures valid, and seek to expand robustness
4. Develop feasible trajectory from ‘then’ to ‘now’ by backcasing
‘V & V’

20. And more... A Possible ‘Stage 4’?
Many cities are experiencing rapid population growth, and fear that all transport networks will become overloaded – ‘Stage 3’ is not enough
CREATE is exploring a possible ‘Stage 4’
Maybe with a stronger emphasis on optimising infrastructure use through cross-sector planning (e.g. retail, health)
‘systems of ‘systems’ approaches
Or will AVs take us back to Stage 1?!!

21. A progression to Stage 4?
Stage 4?

22. On-going Development of Stages 1 and 2
MaaS
AVs
Stage 4?

23. Potential impact of AVs – do we repeat history?
AV-dominated cities??
Stage 4?
…OR?

24. Alternative city trajectories
Source: analysis by Roger Teoh, MSc Dissertation Imperial/UCL 2016

25. Thank you ! peter.jones@ucl.ac.uk