1. R&D Funding in 2018 and Beyond: An Update
Matt Hourihan
December 14, 2017
For the NCURA Region 1 Research Administrators Discussion Group
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program

4. Congress has had somewhat different ideas…

5. 1. The Fiscal Context – a.k.a. the size of the sandbox

15. But Congress has mostly not gone along with these proposed cap changes…
Senate rules: need 60 votes to change, giving Dems (who want defense and nondefense increases) power
Defense hawks: want to see even bigger defense increase, and many willing to accept an increase in nondefense spending to get it
Moderate Republicans: not in favor of the harsh fiscal choices in FY18 budget, or otherwise are “Senate realists”
"This is once again an act of Senate denial," Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA), on current talks to get defense bill through alone
Fiscal conservatives: not generally in favor of more nondefense spending, but can accept in return for bigger fish
entitlement spending, tax reform, border wall, etc
Thus, appropriators’ working framework has been fairly close to current law for nondefense, while busting far past the caps for defense

16. 2. What Congress Actually Does on Science Spending

17. Some Factors That Bear on Appropriations Decisions
“All politics is local”
Jobs
Outreach by constituents
Values and ideology
Role of government versus role of industry
(Anti) Regulation
Public interest concerns
Competitiveness, health, energy security, national security
Eliminating waste, inefficiency, duplication
Individual legislator interests
Balance and tradeoffs: need to achieve a bill that attracts sufficient votes

19. Labor, HHS, Education Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
Tom Cole (OK)
Roy Blunt (MO)
Ranking Member
Rosa DeLauro (CT)
Patty Murray (WA)
Deep divisions over public health programs, education, DOL
Everybody likes NIH lately
House: +3.2% (+$1.1 billion)
Senate: +5.6% (+$2.0 billion)
Especially Alzheimer’s research
F&A changes prohibited, Fogarty protected
Includes 21st Century Cures funding
Others:
BioShield and BARDA flat
IES flat or trimmed
CDC cut
Opioids funding

20. Energy & Water Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
Mike Simpson (ID)
Lamar Alexander (TN)
Ranking Member
Marcy Kaptur (OH)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Tradeoffs: Balancing basic research and facilities, labs, tech portfolio, NNSA; also Army Corps, Bureau of Reclamation
NNSA prioritized
Office of Science: flat in House, +3% in Senate
ASCR boosted in both (exascale, facilities)
BES: facilities prioritized over research
Variation on Fusion Science
Applied tech: Mixed reductions
ARPA-E zeroed in House
Very mixed for EERE, Fossil, Nuclear, grid
Hubs, manufacturing institutes, other research centers mostly preserved

21. Commerce, Justice, Science Subcommittee
House
Senate
Chair
John Culberson (TX)
Richard Shelby (AL)
Ranking Member
Jose Serrano (NY)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Tradeoffs: Balancing Justice, Commerce, NASA, NSF; smaller bills this year
NSF: Cut by ~2% in both
House: no funding for vessels; social science targeted on floor
Senate: research, EHR trimmed
NASA: recent priority, but modest this year
Variation in Science Directorate funding; Exploration favored; Education protected
NOAA: Sea Grant, most research protected
Climate research cut by 19% in House
Major differences re: Polar Follow-On
NIST: Senate more generous; labs fare better than industrial innovation programs
Census: boosted by 4%, but is it enough?

22. 3. Where Are We Headed?

23. Looking Ahead FY18 spending caps: Where do we end up?
Looking like we’re getting a good cap deal?
FY18 appropriations:
CR in place until later December
Last time we got a cap deal, most agencies fared pretty well in the final omnibus
Will the White House ultimately go along with any of this?
Signaled willingness to sign House omnibus, and at the table for cap discussions now
Implications of other issues: tax reform, border wall, DACA, etc?
FY 2019 budget coming soon: don’t expect too many changes
FY 2020: major cliff, then caps expire after FY 2021

25. Ultimately: Decent Odds This 2018 Picture Ends up Looking Better…we’ll know soon

27. mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/RD
For more info…